Ethiopian federal forces entered Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region, on Saturday, Oct. 3. By Sunday, they patrolled the city and manned key institutions. The TPLF, which had held Mekelle, said it had withdrawn.
A local journalist told AFP that communications had returned for the first time in more than a week. The Africa Report said federal forces had full control, while The Associated Press took a more cautious line: it wasn't clear who controlled Mekelle itself.
A City Without Police
Reports from the ground offered little clarity on security. Businesses and shops remained closed, and owners had moved stock to safer places ahead of time, fearing looting and vandalism. One resident told AFP, "There are no police. Last night, we had to organise ourselves and take care of security." The resident, like others, spoke anonymously because the situation was uncertain.
Business owner Filmon Equar Hailu told the AP that civilians looted government offices and took equipment from police headquarters as rebel fighters withdrew. He said he also heard celebratory gunfire overnight and into Sunday morning, as small groups of pro-government fighters entered the city. An AP contributor in Mekelle said residents feared looting.
In a statement posted on Facebook, the TPLF said the regional government would be "temporarily moved out of Mekelle and operate from somewhere else." The Africa Report said federal forces entered without a fight after TPLF leaders and troops abandoned the city. A commander with a pro-government militia told AFP, "We have taken control of Mekelle and we are marching forward."
The Airport
People in the city told the AP that federal forces had taken Alula Aba Nega Airport. An Ethiopian general, speaking anonymously, said, "The military is in full control of the airport. That much I can confirm." Neither the government nor the TPLF has issued an official statement. Those who shared details declined to give their names, citing fear of retribution.
TPLF fighters seized the airport on Sept. 23, 12 days before Oct. 5. Ethiopian Airlines then suspended flights to Mekelle and the Tigrayan cities of Axum and Shire. Severe disruptions to internet and cellphone networks have made it hard to verify how control of the airport changed, including whether fighting took place there.
A Fragile Peace Unravels
The Africa Report said the TPLF and federal forces began fighting again on Sept. 23. AllAfrica reported that the TPLF launched a fresh offensive the previous month, prompting counterattacks. Renewed fighting has raised fears of a return to the civil war of 2020-2022. The African Union puts the war’s toll at about 600,000 dead; The Africa Report said the figure was more than 600,000.
African institutions and Washington brokered the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, but the parties never fully implemented it. The agreement did help maintain a degree of peace until last year, The Africa Report said. Africanews reported that around one million people remain displaced and many parts of the agreement remain unfulfilled.
The TPLF ousted a government-appointed administration earlier in 2026. The group also dominated the coalition that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power and sidelined it. Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict. The federal government has launched drone strikes in Tigray and massed troops at the regional border. Africanews reported that the government holds a significant military advantage and has increased production of military drones since the previous conflict.
Regional Powers Gather
The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan and Eritrea were due to meet Sunday in Alamein, Egypt, on the sidelines of an African Business Forum. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudanese Armed Forces head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan were set to attend.
Before the talks, Sisi urged "dialogue, not confrontation." He opposed foreign interference in African states and called for relations based on "mutual respect, good neighbourliness, dialogue and consultation, far from unilateral policies or narrow interests." Egypt and Ethiopia have long disputed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, with support from Sudan and Egypt. All three deny the allegation. Eritrea accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. Analysts say Eritrea has backed the rebels to keep the conflict away from its border, and warn that the fighting could grow into a wider regional conflict.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael implied this week that the group would continue guerrilla-style attacks, as it did when government forces took Mekelle in 2020. That insurgency ultimately enabled the TPLF to retake the city the following year. "We operate under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever we choose," he said.
Why This Matters:
A state's first duty is to keep order, and Mekelle shows what happens when it can't. Residents organized their own security, shopkeepers hid their inventory, and civilians stripped government offices. Restoring functioning police and courts will matter as much as holding the airport. Commerce won't return to a city where property isn't safe. The Pretoria agreement, now four years old, never delivered full implementation, and a million displaced people show the cost of that failure. The TPLF's guerrilla pledge, along with accusations that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are involved, suggests taking a city may prove easier than holding it. Sisi's call for "dialogue, not confrontation" sits awkwardly beside an unresolved dam dispute, so Addis Ababa's sovereignty claims will face scrutiny from every neighbor in the room.