Forty-four critically injured civilians, including 33 children, reached Mekelle’s Aydar Referral Hospital after shelling in Maychew and Alamata between Saturday and Monday. At least four others died en route. A senior health worker at the city’s biggest medical facility reported the toll as fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters spread across northern Ethiopia.
“Some are blinded, some have their legs and hands amputated from the bombing,” the health worker said.
Pope Leo XIV appealed Wednesday for peace in Tigray and the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara. He urged all parties “to choose the path of dialogue” and called on the international community to provide “generous” and “timely” humanitarian aid. “Armed conflict never solves problems but only worsens them leaving in its wake a trail of death, destruction and resentment,” he said.
A Peace Deal That Never Fully Took Hold
The Pretoria Agreement, signed on November 2, 2022, under African Union mediation, ended the 2020-2022 war. It called for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of TPLF combatants, along with respect for the federal government’s constitutional authority. It also promised Tigray representation in both houses of parliament and an inclusive interim administration until elections.
Key provisions never took effect. The TPLF began handing over heavy weapons, but disarmament stalled after Eritrean and other nonfederal forces failed to withdraw from parts of Tigray. The TPLF then restored Tigray’s pre-war political administration and reinstated the region’s pre-war council. The federal government saw that as a violation of the Pretoria framework. In 2025, the party lost its legal registration, excluding it from Ethiopia’s June 2026 national vote.
A power struggle inside the TPLF ended with a more hardline faction around Debretsion Gebremichael reasserting control. The federal government accused Tigrayan forces of remobilizing. The TPLF, meanwhile, said Addis Ababa withheld civil servants’ funds and restricted access to banks and fuel. Each side calls its actions defensive, and each blames the other for the latest escalation.
A Coalition Aimed at Toppling the Government
The TPLF has since joined a coalition of seven armed groups, announced September 20 and formally named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on September 25. The alliance says its objective is to remove the government in Addis Ababa. Its minimum program calls for ending Abiy’s government, creating an inclusive transitional administration and reforming the constitution.
The alliance isn’t a tidy force. Some members have limited military capacity, and disputes over territory and political aims remain. The Amhara Fano National Movement joined after fighting alongside federal forces against the TPLF in the 2020-2022 war, then turning on the federal government.
On the ground, the picture remains murky. Tigrayan fighters took control of Mekelle’s main airport on September 23, while other accounts say they seized airports in Mekele, Aksum and Shire. Pro-government forces said the ENDF took Alamata on September 27, a claim ACLED also recorded. Alamata sits about 120 kilometers south of Mekelle on a major highway. Federal forces responded with drone strikes and ground operations.
Economic Arteries Under Threat
Prices are climbing fast, even in communities spared direct fighting. Tigrayan forces reportedly advanced into Afar and control the area around Erebti. Analysts said the advance could threaten the main trade corridor, where a highway and railway connect Addis Ababa with Djibouti. Ethiopia relies on Djibouti for most of its maritime commerce, including fuel imports.
Tigray’s roughly 7 million people face restricted fuel and medical supplies, blocked public-sector salaries and fears of further electricity and communications disruptions. The International Committee of the Red Cross said it evacuated around 160 people from Tigray, including Ethiopian Federal Police officers, Ethiopian Airlines employees and African Union observers.
Ethiopian lawyer Amdegebreal Admassu said public facilities that double as shelters are being “either accidentally hit or deliberately targeted.” He added: “Under both international law and our country’s penal code, such actions are classified as war crimes.” Mebrihi Birhane of Human Rights First Ethiopia said the population “must have access to essential services even in times of war.” Reports of civilian deaths at Alamata’s Saturday market, where one resident said 11 people were killed, couldn’t be independently verified. An ENDF spokesperson hadn’t responded to DW.
Regional Risks
Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea and Sudan of backing the new alliance. Both deny the charge. Sudan’s army, meanwhile, accuses Ethiopia of assisting the Rapid Support Forces. Alemayehu Fentaw Weldemariam, a Ph.D. Fellow at the Center for Constitutional Democracy at Indiana University, warned the conflicts could enable one another through cross-border bases, weapons and supply routes.
Ethiopian officials’ statements about taking Eritrea’s port of Assab by force have alarmed Asmara. The two neighbors fought from 1998 to 2000. African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged “the utmost restraint” on September 22. Weldemariam said preventing a wider war would require halting airstrikes and offensive ground operations, restoring communications and humanitarian access, launching independent investigations into attacks on civilians, and holding negotiations that include the wider alliance and the future of Ethiopia’s federal system.
Why This Matters:
The Pretoria Agreement shows what happens when a settlement’s security terms go unenforced: disarmament stalled, disputed territories remained contested, and armed groups kept their options open. Now the stakes are economic as well as human. The Addis Ababa-Djibouti corridor carries most of Ethiopia’s maritime trade, including fuel, so a prolonged threat to it affects prices and supply far beyond the front lines. Ethiopia hosts the African Union and is a longstanding U.S. security partner in the Horn, and Washington has blamed the TPLF for the escalation. A coalition openly seeking to remove a sitting government, a federal state restricting salaries and fuel, and possible spillover involving Eritrea and Sudan all point to risks for regional stability and trade that reach well past Ethiopia’s borders.