More than €1 billion a day: that's the European Union’s goods trade deficit with China. It’s also the figure driving Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic to Beijing this week, where the EU says talks will focus on protecting industry and many thousands of jobs.
Sefcovic travels on Wednesday. He’s due to meet Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Thursday and Friday, after three months of discussions on the deficit and Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earths and other critical minerals. He wants “tangible results” by October, he has said, plus some form of commitment to take to EU leaders when they meet in Brussels on October 15-16. China trade relations top the summit’s agenda.
The Jobs at Stake
The Commission’s argument starts with what’s happening to European workplaces. The EU says the growing imbalance threatens industry and many thousands of jobs, while import data helps explain why officials are alarmed. Last week, the Commission’s chief trade enforcement officer said nearly a quarter of all imports were rising at a worrying rate, with abnormal increases in machinery, textiles, basic metals and chemicals. Those sectors employ people across the Union’s regions.
Cars are a particular worry. In the year to September, EU imports of plug-in hybrids rose 86%, while prices fell 20%. Imports of battery electric vehicles climbed 40%. More than half came from China, despite EU tariffs on BEVs built there.
Brussels Hardens Its Tone
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament last month that the trade imbalance had reached a tipping point. Europe, she said, would use all tools at its disposal to rebalance the relationship. Pressure isn’t confined to Brussels. G20 finance leaders, excluding China’s representatives, agreed in September to act against “non-market” distortions that worsen imbalances.
Beijing sees things differently. It says drawing attention to economic imbalances and overcapacity amounts to protectionism, designed to pressure and restrict China.
What the EU Is Asking For
EU trade officials want China to open its market further to European companies. But they say that alone won’t suffice. The Commission is also pressing China to cap some exports, though officials don’t know which products Beijing might agree to curb. That uncertainty hangs over the whole negotiation: Sefcovic needs a concrete commitment, and nobody yet knows what form it could take.
The clock is ticking. Talks in Beijing run Thursday and Friday, and leaders gather in Brussels within days of Sefcovic’s return. If he arrives with little to show, the summit will face a blunt question: what does the Commission’s “all tools” pledge mean in practice?
Why This Matters:
Behind the trade statistics sit factory floors, supply chains and regional economies that depend on them. A deficit of more than €1 billion a day is a political problem as much as an economic one, because communities exposed to import surges tend to lose faith in institutions that seem slow to respond. A common European approach matters here: no single member state can negotiate with Beijing from a position of strength alone, and Sefcovic speaks for all 27. The test is whether the Union can pair firm trade defence with investment and worker protections that keep industrial regions viable, and whether the October 15-16 summit turns the Commission’s strong language into commitments people in affected sectors can actually feel.