Irish officials have put a €159 billion cut on the table. That’s the budget proposal European leaders will react to for the first time when they gather in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, according to draft Council conclusions seen by POLITICO. Migration shares the summit agenda with energy prices, enlargement and Ukraine.
The cuts frame everything else. Governments are backing away from a commitment to close a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget by year’s end. European Council President António Costa wants leaders to finish negotiations at a December summit, before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail the talks.
The governments won’t bite. Two EU diplomats, briefed on the discussions and speaking to POLITICO on condition of anonymity, said several countries, including Italy and France, urged Costa’s team to drop the phrase “reaching a final agreement by the end of the year” from the Council conclusions. Their fear, according to the reporting: time pressure would weaken their leverage in the negotiations.
Deadline Dropped, Austerity Stays
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told parliament on Wednesday: “we will not sign an agreement that is not beneficial to us just to meet a deadline.” She added: “we will sign an agreement only when it is right for Italy.”
The new draft conclusions, dated Tuesday evening, call only for a “timely agreement.” They say a deal by year’s end would allow EU funding to start flowing when the next budget takes effect in 2028, in two years. It’s the same formula used in the Council conclusions last June.
Spain adds another variable. Snap elections there on Nov. 29, about six weeks away, remain a concern for anyone hoping to meet the year-end target.
Who Pays for the Haggling
The sources describe a negotiation over leverage between capitals. The reporting doesn’t explain who would absorb a €159 billion reduction once it lands. The draft conclusions don’t name budget lines for asylum reception, integration and legal pathways, and the reporting doesn’t say whether those areas would be spared. Migration appears only as one item on a crowded summit agenda, listed after the money fight.
That order matters. The EU’s long-term budget funds any border or asylum policy, and a seven-year settlement locks in priorities until at least 2028 and beyond. The same leaders deciding its shape will discuss migration over those two days, with election calendars in France, Italy and Poland already shaping their calculations.
Washington, Sanctions and Selective Outrage
The draft conclusions also include a new addition. EU leaders condemn U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel. They express “regret” over U.S. sanctions against the International Criminal Court and pledge to engage with Washington to reverse those measures.
The ICC language is mild. Leaders “regret” the sanctions and promise to “engage.” The reporting doesn’t say what, if anything, would follow if Washington refuses.
By Friday, what the summit settles—and what it leaves open—will be clear. The deadline is already gone from the text. The cuts are still on the table.