The European Union incurred an additional 25 billion euros ($29 billion) in oil and gas import costs during the first 54 days of the Iran war, a conflict launched by the U.S. and Israel. This significant transfer of wealth to energy producers has intensified the bloc's pursuit of alternative trade and energy routes, aiming to secure supply lines for European capital and minimize future disruptions to profit flows. The EU is now actively exploring options like the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and other Gulf-India routes, seeking to bolster its “strategic autonomy” in the face of global instability.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told G7 leaders at this week’s summit that “alternative export routes have been created that are more resilient and offer choices” and that “other routes will be built — for example, a typical one is IMEC.” This push for new infrastructure is framed as a necessity for “economic resilience, supply-chain diversification and energy security” for the bloc. While the EU has supported IMEC through a memorandum of understanding, only a minority of its 27 member states are formal signatories. A high-ranking EU diplomat, speaking anonymously, indicated the current focus is on “translating that vision into practical implementation across its three pillars: transport and trade connectivity, energy connectivity and digital connectivity,” which could involve new pipelines and transmission cables.
The State's Hand in Capital's Expansion
The state apparatus is actively facilitating these new avenues for capital accumulation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government launched the Iran war alongside the U.S., last year called IMEC “a very revolutionary and transformative development that we want to bring into place.” The project enjoys Israel's support and would pass through its territory. Lianne Pollak-David, co-founder of the Israel-based Coalition for Regional Security, stated that U.S. leadership is crucial for IMEC's progress, particularly in normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an “essential player.” Saudi Arabia, however, has conditioned normalization on a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood, a demand Netanyahu opposes, revealing the political contradictions inherent in imperial maneuvering.
The Iran war's impact on Gulf Arab countries and the subsequent surge in global fuel prices have underscored the urgency for European capital. After the conflict began, Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, ramped up transport through its East-West Pipeline to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels of oil per day, demonstrating the immediate profit extraction from heightened geopolitical tensions. Von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa stated during an EU leaders’ meeting in April that the bloc is “ready to team up with Gulf countries” to establish new energy infrastructure that bypasses conflict zones like the Strait of Hormuz. G7 nations are also discussing financing and building infrastructure, “sometimes on the terrestrial part, that will be able to go outside of the track of the Strait of Hormuz,” according to French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux.
Profits from Conflict and False Solutions
While specifics on EU-backed projects remain scarce, an anonymous EU official confirmed that the bloc would encourage European companies to invest in renewable energy projects in the Gulf to meet EU energy demand. However, Gabriel Mitchell, an analyst with the German Marshall Fund think tank, noted that “most likely projects in the near term are oil and gas pipelines,” due to their shorter construction timelines. He added that any new projects would need to align with the EU’s green policies, suggesting pipelines might be built with “future dual-use capabilities of transporting both gas and possibly hydrogen,” a concession to environmental concerns that still prioritizes fossil fuel infrastructure.
Another significant project, the Great Seas Interconnector (GSI), an EU-backed electricity cable, aims to connect continental Europe with Cyprus and Israel, potentially linking to India as part of IMEC. Gallia Lindenstrauss, senior fellow with the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, hailed GSI as a “very pragmatic solution for the modern energy needs” that “provides a flexible platform” for green energy transition. However, the GSI is currently “bogged down in red tape over its financing,” highlighting the bureaucratic hurdles even for projects deemed essential for capital's expansion. The U.S. is also actively fostering energy ties in the Eastern Mediterranean, with U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright inaugurating the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center last week, emphasizing the region's growing importance for “global energy development” – a clear signal of imperial interest in resource control and market expansion. The ongoing pursuit of these capital-intensive projects, often involving fossil fuels, demonstrates the system's inability to move beyond its inherent contradictions, merely shifting the sites of surplus extraction rather than addressing the root causes of energy insecurity and conflict.