EU gas storage stood at 72.4% full on 3 October, the lowest level for that time of year since records began in 2011. Analysts warn the bloc could face a winter shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres. That's around 7% of demand—enough gas for between 10 million and 12 million households. The shortfall could mean reduced consumption or costly additional imports; it doesn't mean the gas will necessarily run out.
The cost of the storage gamble
High prices encouraged traders to sell gas in summer instead of storing it for winter. Now, reserves are at a record low, leaving the EU exposed to supply disruptions and a late-winter cold spell, when empty storage sites release gas more slowly. The Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas between November and March than last winter. It estimated the bloc might need to use 14 billion cubic metres less gas than last winter.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) presented its 2026-2027 winter outlook to national energy officials on Thursday. If LNG imports are limited or even “optimal” during a cold winter, storage could fall to 11%, a baseline for strategic reserves that can't easily be tapped. Restoring reserves to 30% by the end of winter would require curtailing or withholding from consumers volumes equivalent to 7% of demand, ENTSO-G warned. Its tight-market scenario assumes a “global deficit” that cuts available LNG imports into Europe by 20%; a severe winter could leave the bloc up to 15% short of the gas it needs.
The Iran war began on 28 February and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about a fifth of global LNG trade. Dutch TTF futures, Europe's gas-price benchmark, reached €84.5 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, their highest level since 2022. Prices crossed €80 again on Thursday and stood around €78 early Friday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an extra €100 billion since the end of February “without a single molecule of energy in addition”. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged governments last month to keep curbing demand amid “exceptionally low” storage levels.
Imports, sanctions and state decisions
IEEFA estimated that filling the storage gap with imports instead of reducing demand would cost about €3 billion, 12% more than the same volumes would have cost last year. U.S. LNG production is near full capacity, IEEFA lead European energy analyst Ana Jaller-Makarewicz told POLITICO, so additional purchases could squeeze supply further. “There is not much demand to destroy in Europe,” said Laurent Ruseckas, a senior gas market analyst at S&P Global Energy, adding that the war in Ukraine had already destroyed 20% of the bloc's industrial demand. “And it didn't come back.”
The EU introduced a ban on new Russian energy contracts at the beginning of 2026, and a ban on imports under existing short-term contracts took effect on 25 April. A full ban on Russian LNG under eligible existing long-term contracts is scheduled for 1 January 2027. Yet Urgewald said Europe paid around €7.88 billion for LNG from Russia's Arctic energy project in the first nine months of 2026. A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports between January and September, and EU ports received 85% of Yamal's recorded deliveries.
The commercial flow continues as governments prepare the next round of restrictions. Urgewald called for the upcoming 22nd EU sanctions package to close loopholes supporting the specialised Arc7 ice-class tanker fleet. “The EU should not wait passively for the 2027 embargo to take effect,” the group said. The Trump administration's Lindsey Graham Act also gives the United States power to sanction Russian LNG deliveries before the EU ban takes effect. Its first review deadline is 18 October, but that date doesn't automatically ban Yamal deliveries; the practical effect depends on how the administration uses its powers.
Public reserves, private costs
Governments have stepped in to build stocks. The Hague cleared up to €993 million in June to help state-owned EBN build reserves; Germany told state-owned importer SEFE to store 8 terawatt-hours by 15 December, while Spain increased LNG held at its import terminals by more than 25%. Those steps sit alongside a market where traders' summer sales helped leave storage depleted and extra purchases now carry higher costs.
Winter gas use fell from about 222 billion cubic metres in 2021-22 to 185 billion in 2022-23, then rose to around 200 billion in each of the last two winters. IEEFA said that “suggest[ed] the era of easy demand cuts may be over.” It urged investment in renewables, heat pumps, industrial electrification and efficiency upgrades instead of more storage, which it said “risks locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades.” The think tank's warning is blunt: “An increased reliance on gas storage has become a major financial liability for Europe.”