The European Union could face a winter gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres—around 7% of demand and enough to supply between 10 million and 12 million households. Storage is depleted, and disruptions linked to the Iran war are squeezing supply. That doesn't necessarily mean the bloc will run out of gas. But it could mean reduced consumption or costly extra imports; households and industry will feel either one.
Storage at a Record Low
EU gas storage stood at about 72.4% full on 3 October, the lowest level for that time of year since records began in 2011. The Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S.-based non-profit energy-market analyst that supports a shift to cleaner energy, said storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas between November and March than last winter. Empty storage sites release gas more slowly. That could leave the EU short during a late-winter cold spell and force a larger, pricier refill next summer.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) also warned of supply risks in its 2026-2027 winter outlook, which it presented to national energy officials on Thursday. In a cold winter with limited LNG imports, storage could fall to 11%, a baseline for strategic reserves that can't easily be tapped. Restoring reserves to 30% by winter's end would require curtailing or withholding volumes equivalent to 7% of demand. European gas grid operators warned a severe winter could leave the bloc up to 15% short.
Human and Economic Cost
The war in Iran began on 28 February and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about a fifth of global LNG trade. Dutch TTF futures, Europe's gas-price benchmark, hit €84.5 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, the highest since 2022. They crossed €80 again on Thursday. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an extra €100 billion since the end of February "without a single molecule of energy in addition."
IEEFA estimated filling the storage gap with imports instead of cutting demand would cost about €3 billion, 12% more than last year. The EU increasingly sources LNG from the United States, but U.S. production is near full capacity. "Additional purchases could further squeeze supply," IEEFA's lead European energy analyst Ana Jaller-Makarewicz told POLITICO. If countries exhaust stocks this year, she said, they would face a bigger refill next year, extending a cycle of low reserves and higher prices.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged governments last month to keep curbing demand amid "exceptionally low" storage, in a letter Euronews saw. Yet the room for easy savings may be gone. Laurent Ruseckas of S&P Global Energy said "there is not much demand to destroy in Europe," noting the war in Ukraine had already destroyed 20% of the bloc's industrial demand. "And it didn't come back."
The Russian LNG Question
The crunch collides with the phase-out of Russian gas. Urgewald, a German-based campaign group, said Europe paid around €7.88 billion for LNG from Russia's Arctic energy project in the first nine months of 2026, based on Kpler data. A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports between January and September, and Yamal LNG imports rose 9.5% year on year. EU ports received 85% of Yamal's recorded deliveries, with France taking nearly three-quarters of September's EU volumes.
The EU banned new Russian energy contracts at the start of 2026, and short-term contract imports were banned from 25 April. Yet September deliveries reached 792,440 tonnes, slightly above a year earlier. A full ban on eligible long-term contracts takes effect on 1 January 2027, cutting imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres. Until then, continued purchases generate revenue for Russia's war against Ukraine.
Sebastian Rötters, Urgewald's energy campaigner, said the 2027 phase-out would be the real test for Yamal. Urgewald wants the 22nd EU sanctions package to close loopholes, above all those keeping the Arc7 ice-class tanker fleet operating. "The EU should not wait passively for the 2027 embargo to take effect," the group said. Such measures would require coordination among the EU and its member states and could complicate gas procurement ahead of an unpredictable winter.
Washington Holds a Lever
The Trump administration announced the Lindsey Graham Act, giving the United States power to sanction Russian LNG deliveries to Europe before the EU ban. The U.S. president must compile a list of ships by 18 October; those ships would face sanctions unless waivers are issued. "This is possible and, given Trump's track record regarding Russia, not unlikely," Rötters told Euronews. He said EU imports from Yamal would depend on the goodwill of the U.S. President until the final embargo.
Governments Scramble
The Hague cleared up to €993 million in June to help state-owned EBN build stocks. Germany told SEFE to store 8 terawatt-hours by 15 December, while Spain raised LNG held at its terminals by more than 25%. Winter gas use fell from about 222 billion cubic metres in 2021-22 to 185 billion in 2022-23, then rose to around 200 billion in each of the last two winters. IEEFA said this "suggest[ed] the era of easy demand cuts may be over." It urged investment in renewables, heat pumps, industrial electrification and efficiency upgrades rather than more storage, which it said "risks locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades."
Why This Matters: A winter gas squeeze isn't an abstraction. It hits household bills and factories already operating on thin margins, and puts the credibility of the EU's pledge to break from Russian energy on the line. The figures show a bloc paying heavily for fuel it can't easily replace, while still sending money to Moscow through Arctic LNG. IEEFA's warning that gas storage has become "a major financial liability" points toward public investment in efficiency, heat pumps and renewables, which shield consumers from price spikes. Coordinated action on sanctions loopholes and demand reduction is something no single capital can deliver alone. The test is whether Brussels and member states act before the cold arrives.