EU gas storage stood at 72.4% full on 3 October, the lowest level for that point in the year since records began in 2011. Reports say the bloc could face a winter shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres—around 7% of demand, enough to supply between 10 million and 12 million households. Europe won't run out of gas, but governments may have to choose between curbing consumption and paying heavily for extra cargoes.
The Numbers Behind the Shortfall
The Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S.-based non-profit energy-market analyst that supports a shift to cleaner energy, calculated that storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas between November and March than it did last winter. Combined with the complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports from January 2027, the think tank said the EU might need to use 7% less gas than last winter. Storage, it stressed, won't necessarily run dry.
Network operators sound less relaxed. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) presented its 2026-2027 winter outlook to national energy officials on Thursday. During a cold winter, limited or even "optimal" LNG imports could leave storage at 11%, a baseline for strategic reserves that can't easily be tapped. To restore reserves to 30% by the end of winter, governments would need to curtail or withhold from consumers volumes equivalent to 7% of demand. Its tight-market scenario assumes a "global deficit" that cuts LNG imports into Europe by 20%. Grid operators warned that a severe winter could leave the bloc up to 15% short.
Empty sites release gas more slowly. That mechanical problem could leave the EU exposed to a late-winter cold spell and force a larger, more expensive refill next summer.
The Price Tag
High prices prompted traders to sell gas in summer rather than store it. The U.S.-Israeli war in the Middle East began on 28 February and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about a fifth of global LNG trade, adding to the squeeze. Dutch TTF futures, Europe's benchmark, reached €84.5 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, their highest level since 2022. They crossed €80 again on Thursday and stood around €78 early Friday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an extra €100 billion since the end of February "without a single molecule of energy in addition". IEEFA estimated that filling the storage gap with imports instead of cutting demand would cost about €3 billion—12% more than the same volumes cost last year.
There may be little room for further savings. Winter gas use fell from about 222 billion cubic metres in 2021-22 to 185 billion in 2022-23, then climbed back to around 200 billion in each of the last two winters. IEEFA said this "suggest[ed] the era of easy demand cuts may be over." S&P Global Energy analyst Laurent Ruseckas put it bluntly: "There is not much demand to destroy in Europe." The war in Ukraine had already destroyed 20% of the bloc's industrial demand, he said. "And it didn't come back."
Russian LNG: The Phase-Out Problem
The phase-out of Russian supply is proving harder to carry out than to announce. Urgewald, a German-based campaign group, said Europe paid around €7.88 billion for LNG from Russia's Arctic energy project in the first nine months of 2026, using Kpler data. A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports between January and September, and Yamal LNG imports rose 9.5% year on year. EU ports received 85% of Yamal's recorded deliveries. France took nearly three-quarters of September's EU deliveries.
The EU banned new Russian energy contracts at the beginning of 2026, and barred imports under existing short-term contracts from 25 April. Yet September deliveries reached 792,440 tonnes, slightly above the level a year earlier. The full ban on eligible long-term contracts takes effect on 1 January 2027.
Urgewald wants the 22nd sanctions package to close loopholes that support the Arc7 ice-class tanker fleet. Energy campaigner Sebastian Rötters noted that EU imports from Yamal would depend on the goodwill of the U.S. President from 18 October until the embargo takes effect. The Lindsey Graham Act gives Washington power to sanction the trade, though waivers are possible. Available data didn't establish how much trade could be redirected or what effect that would have on European prices.
What Governments Are Doing
National capitals have acted on their own. The Hague cleared up to €993 million in June to help state-owned EBN build stocks. Germany told state-owned importer SEFE to store 8 terawatt-hours by 15 December. Spain increased LNG held at its import terminals by more than 25%. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged governments last month to keep curbing demand amid "exceptionally low" storage levels, in a letter seen by Euronews.
IEEFA argues for investment in renewables, heat pumps and efficiency rather than more storage, which it said "risks locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades." Yet the group also concedes that "an increased reliance on gas storage has become a major financial liability for Europe."
Why This Matters:
Energy security is a sovereignty question as much as a climate one. A bloc that depends on storage because it has shut off Russian pipeline flexibility, while leaning on a U.S. LNG sector already near full capacity, has less control over its own winter than its leaders would like. The fiscal exposure is real: €100 billion in extra import costs since February, another €3 billion to refill, and a summer-winter price spread that has made storing gas a financial risk. National governments, not Brussels, are paying to build reserves and facing voters if prices spike or supply is rationed. Industrial demand that has already shrunk by a fifth is a warning about competitiveness. Europe's decarbonisation ambitions hold only if secure, affordable supply keeps factories open through the winter.