The EU could face a winter gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres, enough to supply between 10 million and 12 million households, as depleted storage and disruption linked to the Iran war constrain supplies. That gap could force lower consumption or costly additional imports. It doesn't mean the bloc will run out of gas.
Record-low reserves, rising costs
EU gas storage stood at about 72.4% full on 3 October, the lowest level for that time of year since records began in 2011. The Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas between November and March than it did last winter. According to the report, the bloc might need to use 14 billion cubic metres less gas than last winter.
Empty storage sites release gas more slowly. A late-winter cold spell could leave the EU short and force a larger, more expensive refill next summer. IEEFA said the storage gap, combined with the complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports scheduled for January 2027, could mean the EU needs to use 7% less gas than last winter. The think tank said storage wouldn't necessarily run dry.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas warned of supply risks in its 2026-2027 winter outlook, which it presented to national energy officials on Thursday. If LNG imports are limited or even “optimal” during a cold winter, storage could fall to 11%, a baseline for strategic reserves that can't easily be tapped. The network warned that restoring reserves to 30% by the end of winter would require curtailing or withholding from consumers gas equal to 7% of demand. Its tight-market scenario assumes a “global deficit” that cuts LNG imports available to Europe by 20%; European gas grid operators said a severe winter could leave the bloc up to 15% short.
High prices encouraged traders to sell gas in summer rather than store it for winter. Dutch TTF futures, Europe's gas-price benchmark, hit €84.5 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, their highest level since 2022. Prices crossed €80 again on Thursday and stood around €78 early Friday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an extra €100 billion since the end of February “without a single molecule of energy in addition”. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged governments last month to keep curbing demand amid “exceptionally low” storage levels.
Dependence on imported gas
IEEFA estimated that filling the storage gap with imports instead of reducing demand would cost about €3 billion, 12% more than the same volumes would have cost last year. The report said the U.S.-Iran war had lifted prices. U.S. LNG production is near full capacity, IEEFA lead European energy analyst Ana Jaller-Makarewicz told POLITICO, so additional purchases could squeeze supply further.
The report said record-low reserves leave Europe “with less of a buffer” against global supply disruptions and “vulnerable to price spikes.” If countries exhaust stocks this year, Jaller-Makarewicz said, they would have more to refill next year, extending a cycle of low reserves and higher prices.
Winter gas demand has risen over the past two years while imports have flatlined, IEEFA said. Net storage drawdowns reached 22.6 billion cubic metres in January 2026, compared with 18.8 billion in January 2025 and 17.8 billion in January 2024. Laurent Ruseckas, a senior gas market analyst at S&P Global Energy, said a rapid early-winter drawdown would drive up prices and draw cargoes from Asia to Europe. “There is not much demand to destroy in Europe,” he said, adding that the war in Ukraine had already destroyed 20% of the bloc's industrial demand. “And it didn't come back.”
Russian LNG and the phase-out
Urgewald said Europe paid around €7.88 billion for LNG from Russia's Arctic energy project in the first nine months of 2026. Its figures drew on data from market intelligence firm Kpler. A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports between January and September, and Russian Yamal LNG imports to Europe rose 9.5% year on year. EU ports received 85% of Yamal's recorded deliveries.
The EU introduced a ban on new Russian energy contracts at the beginning of 2026. A ban on imports under existing short-term contracts took effect on 25 April, while a full ban on Russian LNG under eligible existing long-term contracts is scheduled for 1 January 2027. Until then, continued purchases generate revenue for Russia's war against Ukraine.
IEEFA urged investment in renewables, heat pumps, industrial electrification and efficiency upgrades to curb winter demand, rather than more storage, which it said “risks locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades.” The think tank said: “An increased reliance on gas storage has become a major financial liability for Europe.”