The EU could face a winter gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres. Storage has hit its lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011, while disruptions are constraining supplies. The gap equals around 7% of demand, or enough gas for between 10 million and 12 million households. It could force reduced consumption or costly additional imports, though it doesn’t necessarily mean the bloc will run out of gas.
Storage and supply risks
EU gas storage stood at about 72.4% full on 3 October. The Institution for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said storage could supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas between November and March than it did last winter. In its report, the think tank said the bloc might need to use 14 billion cubic metres less gas than last winter.
Empty storage sites release gas more slowly. That could leave the EU short during a late-winter cold spell and require a larger, more expensive refill next summer. IEEFA said the storage shortfall, together with the complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from January 2027, could mean the EU needs to use 7% less gas than last winter. The think tank stressed the situation doesn’t mean storage will run dry.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) also warned of supply risks in its 2026-2027 winter outlook, which it presented to national energy officials on Thursday. If LNG imports are limited or even “optimal” during a cold winter, storage could fall to 11%, a baseline for strategic reserves that can’t easily be tapped. ENTSO-G warned that restoring reserves to 30% by the end of winter would require curtailing or withholding from consumers volumes equivalent to 7% of demand.
Its tight-market scenario assumes a “global deficit” that reduces available LNG imports into Europe by 20%. European gas grid operators warned that a severe winter could leave the bloc up to 15% short of the gas it needs.
Imports, prices and national decisions
High prices encouraged traders to sell gas in summer rather than store it for winter. Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s gas-price benchmark, reached €84.5 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, their highest level since 2022, the year Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. Prices crossed €80 again on Thursday and stood around €78 early Friday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an extra €100 billion since the end of February “without a single molecule of energy in addition”. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged governments last month to keep curbing demand amid “exceptionally low” storage levels, in a letter Euronews saw.
IEEFA estimated that filling the storage gap with imports rather than reducing demand would cost about €3 billion, 12% more than the same volumes would have cost last year. The EU increasingly sources seaborne LNG from the United States, but U.S. LNG production is near full capacity, IEEFA lead European energy analyst Ana Jaller-Makarewicz told POLITICO. She said additional purchases could squeeze supply further.
Governments have taken different steps to build reserves. The Hague cleared up to €993 million in June to help state-owned EBN build stocks. Germany told state-owned importer SEFE to store 8 terawatt-hours of gas by 15 December, while Spain raised the amount of LNG held at its import terminals by more than 25%.
Russian LNG and the coming ban
The EU introduced a ban on new Russian energy contracts at the beginning of 2026. A ban on imports under existing short-term contracts took effect on 25 April, but September deliveries reached 792,440 tonnes, slightly above the level a year earlier. The EU scheduled a full ban on Russian LNG under eligible existing long-term contracts for 1 January 2027.
Urgewald said Europe paid around €7.88 billion for LNG from Russia’s Arctic energy project in the first nine months of 2026. A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports between January and September, and EU ports received 85% of Yamal’s recorded deliveries. France received nearly three-quarters of September’s EU deliveries, while the Netherlands imported 146.461 million tonnes and Portugal 74.263 million tonnes, according to figures cited in the report.
According to Eurostat figures cited by IEEFA, the EU’s reserves covered 30% of winter consumption last winter, up from 25% in 2021-22. Winter gas demand has risen over the past two years while imports have flatlined. IEEFA said this “suggest[ed] the era of easy demand cuts may be over.”