Who Holds the Levers
The European Union hosted more than 60 nations in Brussels on Monday for talks with Palestinian representatives on stability, security and long-term peace in Gaza and the West Bank, even as the bloc remains deeply entangled in the same machinery that keeps the region under pressure. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohamed Mustafa attended the meeting, which came as the EU sought a greater role in Middle East diplomacy and as leaders discussed the future of Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.
The gathering put the apparatus of international power on display: the EU has largely been on the sidelines in the Middle East despite being the biggest provider of aid to the Palestinians and backing a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A majority of EU member countries now recognize an independent Palestinian state after many expressed outrage over Israeli actions in Gaza. The 27-nation bloc is also Israel’s top trading partner and a major buyer of Israeli weapons.
Aid, Trade, and the Same Old Order
That contradiction sat at the center of the Brussels conference. The EU had no role in negotiating the October ceasefire in Gaza that took effect after two years of war. European moves to condemn or sanction some Israeli actions frequently had been vetoed by Hungary’s Victor Orban. Hungary’s next leader, Péter Magyar, has indicated he will act differently from Orban on Israel. Some leaders critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, are pushing for decisive action.
Magyar has said he would seek “pragmatic relations” with Israel but also rejoin the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza. Orban defied that warrant while hosting Netanyahu in 2025, then started the process of Hungary leaving the world’s only court for war crimes and genocide. Magyar also said he might not continue Orban’s policy of vetoing actions on Israel, which had been a stumbling block for EU leaders critical of Israel over the past three years of conflict in the Middle East.
After the Brussels meeting, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that without Orban’s veto, action could be coming soon, including sanctions on violent Israeli settlers. She said, “We have 27 countries and 26 countries want to put violent settlers sanctions in place,” and added, “The one who doesn’t want the sanctions on violent settlers has gotten their upper hand. Now, this country had elections, and we’ll have a new government.”
What People Under Occupation Face
Sánchez wants the EU to suspend its long-standing Association Agreement with Israel and has said Spain will make a formal proposal at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday. A suspension seems unlikely because countries such as Austria and Germany tend to back Israel. The agreement, in force since 2000, sets out the legal and institutional framework within which the bloc and Israel conduct trade and cooperation. The EU has found indications Israel had violated that agreement in its military campaign in Gaza.
Other action, such as targeted sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank, could be approved if a qualified majority of 15 of the 27 nations representing at least 65% of the EU’s population agree. The language of procedure and thresholds remains the preferred costume of power, even as the facts on the ground keep piling up.
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot said ahead of Monday’s meeting that ongoing attacks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and continued devastation in Gaza had dimmed the prospect for a two-state solution. He said, “The two-state solution is being made more difficult by the day,” and added, “But Belgium and many European and Arab partners continue to believe that this remains the only realistic path to a lasting peace, for Israelis, for Palestinians and for the stability of the entire region.”
Mohamed Mustafa said Gaza requires “one state, one government, one law and one goal.” He said, “Our common objective of achieving one security structure under the legitimate authority should guide the effective coordination between the International Stabilization Force, the Palestinian Authority, security institutions and other international actors. Security must not be fragmented.” He also called for “the gradual and responsible collection of arms from all armed groups and also the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.” The disarmament of Hamas is a major challenge in next steps for the ceasefire in Gaza.
In the West Bank, Palestinians say Israel has used the cover of the Iran war to tighten its grip over the territory, as settler attacks surge and the military imposes additional wartime restrictions on movement, citing security.
The EU has avoided directly joining the Board of Peace created by the Trump administration to tackle Gaza, preferring the multilateralism of the United Nations and global legal norms. During the Brussels meeting, Mustafa said he had met for the first time Nikolay Mladenov in the Bulgarian diplomat’s role as the Trump-appointed director of Board of Peace. Mustafa said he pressed Mladenov on ongoing Israeli military action in Gaza, increasing humanitarian assistance and security in the coastal enclave. He said, “We see eye to eye on many things, and I think that we will be meeting again in the near future.”