The European Commission’s proposed 15-year probation period could let the EU strip new members of voting rights for serious breaches of its rules, leaving candidate countries worried that accession might bring second-class status. Unveiled on Tuesday, the measure would also make it easier to trigger action than the existing Article 7 process. Brussels calls it a safeguard. Entrants are asking who gets to wield it.
The terms of entry
Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, told Euronews Ukraine expects accession to remain “ambitious, credible and predictable.” He said the country’s starting point remained “full integration into the single market,” and that any transitional arrangements must be “justified, proportionate and time-limited.” The Commission’s proposal puts those conditions in sharper focus: candidates could join while their voting rights remain vulnerable to suspension for years.
The Netherlands and France have called for tougher safeguards, citing Hungary under Viktor Orbán and the difficulty of addressing democratic backsliding after a country joins. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the EU didn’t want “a two-tier membership” and that countries must meet high rule-of-law standards. Yet a probation period reserved for new members is precisely the kind of distinction candidates fear, whatever label Brussels puts on it.
Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania and Moldova are the four frontrunners named in the report. Their public response has been cautious. Behind closed doors, candidates have expressed unease about the 15-year period; several had hoped it would be shorter. For countries seeking entry, existing members still shape the rules, and the accession treaty is where they will negotiate the conditions.
A safeguard with political leverage
The Commission says its “institutional safeguard clause” would be temporary and has no renewal mechanism. But Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s mission to the EU, asked what would happen if the period were repeatedly extended or someone blocked its expiration. The concern isn’t only what the proposal says now; it’s whether future members could resist pressure to keep probation in place.
Candidates also fear safeguards could become a weapon in disputes with existing members. “New members should not be blackmailed by old members,” said Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research. He warned of possible instrumentalisation of bilateral issues. Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said assessments should rely on objective criteria and systematic breaches. A Commission official told Euronews monitoring would be “very active” and would complement expanded rule-of-law reports and information collected under Article 7.
Article 7 allows certain membership rights to be suspended when a member state seriously and persistently breaches the EU’s core values. Under the current process, action against a state undermining the Union’s functioning requires unanimity among all other member states. Hungary’s case shows the obstacle: a sympathetic Polish government blocked action. Under the new proposal, a measure could proceed unless a qualified majority opposed it. That change is meant to make action easier; candidates worry it could also make action against a newcomer that doesn’t toe the line easier.
Accession by negotiation
The Commission or a “reasoned request” from member states could trigger the procedure. The details would be negotiated in each accession treaty, with safeguards tailored to a newcomer’s circumstances, bargaining position and relations with current members. The proposals aren’t binding and are expected to become a major point of contention in the final stages of accession talks.
Kos said transitional periods must be negotiated between member states and the country seeking membership, then included in the accession treaty. Moldova’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Cristina Gherasimov, said the country’s objective remained “full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities.” Those rights are now part of the bargaining over entry.
Brussels expects stronger safeguards to persuade enlargement-sceptical countries such as France and the Netherlands to ratify future accession treaties. Montenegro, first in line to join, could set a blueprint for future treaties, but its determination to complete accession may leave it little leverage. “Montenegro would accept anything. They are very keen to conclude the process, almost at any cost,” a diplomat from a candidate country told Euronews on condition of anonymity. The route into the union is being negotiated; those already inside hold the power to set its terms.