A 15-year probation period that could strip new EU members of voting rights has rattled the countries waiting to join the bloc. The European Commission unveiled the proposed safeguards on Tuesday. Candidates fear they'll become members with fewer rights, or face pressure from current members.
The measures aim to prevent democratic backsliding after accession. They would allow voting rights to be suspended for serious breaches of EU values and rules. Candidates have responded cautiously in public, but behind closed doors, unease is plain—especially about the probation period's length. Several had hoped it would be shorter.
The Policy Gap
The Commission says the “institutional safeguard clause” is temporary and therefore not discriminatory. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos was blunt about the lesson Brussels has learned. “We do not want a two-tier membership to join our union. Countries need to meet very high standards on the rule of law. We need to be sure that after joining, they never fall below those standards again. And this is what we have learned from experiences in the past,” she said when presenting the measure.
She means Hungary under Viktor Orbán. The Netherlands and France pointed to Hungary when they called for tougher safeguards, citing how difficult it is to address backsliding once a country joins. Article 7 of the EU treaty allows membership rights to be suspended, but only if all other member states agree unanimously. In Hungary’s case, a sympathetic Polish government blocked action.
The new proposal changes the arithmetic. A decision would move forward unless a qualified majority of member states opposed it. The Commission could trigger the procedure, as could a “reasoned request” from member states. That makes action easier, and candidates worry it could also make it too easy to target a newcomer that doesn't toe the line.
Candidates Push Back
The proposal includes no renewal mechanism, but candidates fear member states might try to add one. Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s mission to the EU, put the concern directly: “The Commission stresses that this measure is temporary, but there is a significant risk that it might turn into a permanent status. What happens if the probation period gets repeatedly extended or its expiration blocked?”
There’s another fear: safeguards could become tools in political disputes with current members. “It is important that the new safeguards should not be abused,” said Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research. “New members should not be blackmailed by old members,” he said, referring to the potential instrumentalisation of bilateral issues. Candidates want clear protection from arbitrary action and pressure to abandon a strategic national interest. That makes the threshold for suspending voting rights crucial.
Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said any assessment of backsliding should rely on objective criteria and systematic breaches. Asked how decisions would be made, a Commission official said: “We will have very active monitoring precisely in the fields that are covered by the new institutional safeguards.” The official said monitoring would complement expanded rule-of-law reports and information collected under Article 7.
What Comes Next
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Vsevolod Chentsov, told Euronews that Kyiv is counting on the EU to keep the process “ambitious, credible and predictable.” Any transitional arrangements, he said, “must be justified, proportionate and time-limited.” Moldova’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Cristina Gherasimov, wrote on Facebook that her country’s objective “remains full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities.”
The proposals aren't binding. They’re expected to become a major point of contention in the final stages of accession negotiations. Kos said member states and the country seeking to join will negotiate transitional periods, which will then become part of the accession treaty. Safeguards would reflect each newcomer’s circumstances, bargaining position and relations with current members, including supporters and sceptics.
Along with Ukraine, the other three frontrunners are Montenegro, Albania and Moldova, small countries deeply invested in joining. Brussels expects stronger safeguards could help persuade enlargement-sceptical countries such as France and the Netherlands to ratify future accession treaties. Montenegro, first in line, could set a blueprint. But its determination to finish may leave it little leverage. “Montenegro would accept anything. They are very keen to conclude the process, almost at any cost,” a diplomat from a candidate country said on condition of anonymity.
Why This Matters:
The Commission is trying to fix a real weakness: the EU found it couldn't easily act against a member that strayed from its core values after joining. But the fix raises a question about fairness. If safeguards are applied unevenly, shaped by each newcomer’s bargaining position rather than clear objective criteria, enlargement risks creating members with unequal standing. For countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro, which have staked their futures on joining, the threshold and the route out of probation will determine whether membership brings equal or conditional rights. Treaty negotiations will settle those details, and the weakest bargainers will have the least room to say no.