New EU members could lose voting rights for serious breaches of the bloc’s values during a 15-year probation period, under proposals the European Commission unveiled on Tuesday. Candidate countries fear the measure will leave them with second-class status. Several capitals, meanwhile, say the Union needs much tougher protection than it has now.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos was blunt about the plan’s reasoning. “We do not want a two-tier membership to join our union. Countries need to meet very high standards on the rule of law. We need to be sure that after joining, they never fall below those standards again. And this is what we have learned from experiences in the past,” she said when presenting the measure.
What the Commission Is Proposing
The so-called “institutional safeguard clause” would let the Union suspend voting rights for newcomers that commit serious breaches of EU values and rules. The Commission calls the measure temporary and therefore not discriminatory. The proposal includes no renewal mechanism, though candidates worry member states may try to add one.
The procedure would be easier to trigger than Article 7 of the EU treaty. Under Article 7, action against a state undermining the Union’s functioning requires unanimity among all other member states. In Hungary’s case, a sympathetic Polish government blocked action. Under the new proposal, a decision would go ahead unless a qualified majority of member states opposed it. Either the Commission or a “reasoned request” from member states could start the process. The details, which newcomers consider crucial, would be negotiated in the accession treaty.
A Commission official said monitoring would be intensive. “We will have very active monitoring precisely in the fields that are covered by the new institutional safeguards,” the official told Euronews. That work would complement expanded rule-of-law reports and information gathered under Article 7.
Sovereignty Concerns From Candidates
The four frontrunners are Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania and Moldova. Their public response has been cautious. Behind closed doors, they’ve voiced unease, especially about the 15-year period. Several had hoped it would be shorter.
Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, told Euronews Kyiv wants an accession process that is “ambitious, credible and predictable.” He added: “Our starting point remains full integration into the single market, and any transitional arrangements must be justified, proportionate and time-limited.”
Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s mission to the EU, questioned whether the measure would stay temporary. “The Commission stresses that this measure is temporary, but there is a significant risk that it might turn into a permanent status. What happens if the probation period gets repeatedly extended or its expiration blocked?” he said.
Others fear political abuse. Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research, said the safeguards “should not be abused.” He added: “New members should not be blackmailed by old members,” pointing to the risk that bilateral disputes could get dragged into the process. Candidates want clear protection against arbitrary action or pressure to abandon a strategic national interest. That makes the threshold for suspending voting rights the key issue. Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said any assessment of backsliding should rest on objective criteria and systematic breaches.
Enlargement-Sceptic Capitals Want More
The Netherlands and France called for tougher safeguards, citing Hungary under Viktor Orbán and the difficulty of addressing backsliding after a country joins. Brussels expects stronger safeguards could help persuade enlargement-sceptical countries such as France and the Netherlands to ratify future accession treaties.
The proposals aren’t binding. Kos said member states and each applicant will negotiate the transitional periods, which will become part of the accession treaty. Safeguards would be tailored to each newcomer’s circumstances, bargaining position and relations with current members, including supporters and sceptics.
Montenegro, first in line to join, could set a blueprint for future treaties. Its eagerness may leave it little leverage. “Montenegro would accept anything. They are very keen to conclude the process, almost at any cost,” a diplomat from a candidate country told Euronews on condition of anonymity. Moldova’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Cristina Gherasimov, said on Facebook: “Our objective remains full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities.”
Why This Matters:
Existing members have a legitimate interest in ensuring new entrants honour the rule of law, and Hungary’s experience showed how hard it is to act after accession. That interest drives the push from The Hague and Paris, and ratification in enlargement-sceptical capitals may depend on it. But the design matters. A qualified-majority trigger lowers the bar for action, and candidates are right to ask who defines a “serious breach” and whether bilateral quarrels could be dressed up as rule-of-law concerns. If the Union wants enlargement to command public support in member states, it needs safeguards voters trust and applicants can accept as fair. The accession treaty negotiations will decide whether it finds that balance.