The European Commission has proposed a 15-year probation period for new EU members, during which they could lose voting rights for serious breaches of the bloc’s values and rules. Candidate countries fear the plan could create second-class membership or give existing members a tool to exert political pressure.
The measures came out on Tuesday. They’re intended to make suspending certain membership rights easier than under Article 7 of the EU treaty, which allows action against a member state that seriously and persistently breaches the EU’s core values.
A longer path to equal rights
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Vsevolod Chentsov, said his country expects the accession process to remain “ambitious, credible and predictable” and reflect Ukraine’s progress. “Our starting point remains full integration into the single market, and any transitional arrangements must be justified, proportionate and time-limited,” he told Euronews.
Montenegro, Albania and Moldova are the other three frontrunners for membership. The countries have responded cautiously in public, while candidates have expressed unease behind closed doors, particularly about the 15-year probation period. Several had hoped it would be shorter.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the safeguards are meant to prevent a repeat of democratic backsliding after accession. Countries including the Netherlands and France have called for tougher measures, citing Hungary under Viktor Orbán and the difficulty of addressing democratic backsliding once a country joins.
“We don’t want a two-tier membership to join our union. Countries need to meet very high standards on the rule of law. We need to be sure that after joining, they never fall below those standards again. And this is what we have learned from experiences in the past,” Kos said when presenting the proposal.
The Commission says the “institutional safeguard clause” would be temporary and is therefore not discriminatory. The proposal contains no renewal mechanism. But candidate countries fear member states could seek to add one, or prevent the probation period from ending.
Who decides when rights are suspended
“The Commission stresses that this measure is temporary, but there is a significant risk that it might turn into a permanent status. What happens if the probation period gets repeatedly extended or its expiration blocked?” said Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s mission to the EU.
Candidates also worry safeguards could be used in political disputes. “It’s important that the new safeguards should not be abused,” said Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research. “New members should not be blackmailed by old members,” he said, referring to the potential use of bilateral issues as leverage.
Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said assessments of backsliding should rely on objective criteria and systematic breaches. A Commission official told Euronews there would be “very active monitoring” in the fields covered by the safeguards. The official said it would complement expanded rule-of-law reports and information collected under Article 7.
Under Article 7, action against a member state requires unanimity among all other member states. In Hungary’s case, a sympathetic Polish government had blocked action. Under the new proposal, a decision would proceed unless a qualified majority opposed it. That change has raised concern about action against a newcomer that doesn’t toe the line. The Commission or a “reasoned request” from member states could trigger the procedure.
Accession terms still to be negotiated
The proposals are non-binding and are expected to become a major point of contention in the final stages of accession negotiations. Their details would be negotiated in each accession treaty, with safeguards tailored to the newcomer’s circumstances, bargaining position and relations with current members.
Moldova’s deputy prime minister for European integration, Cristina Gherasimov, said on Facebook that the country’s objective remains “full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities.” Brussels expects stronger safeguards could help persuade enlargement-sceptical countries such as France and the Netherlands to ratify future accession treaties.
Montenegro is first in line to join and could set a blueprint for future treaties. A diplomat from a candidate country told Euronews that Montenegro’s determination to complete accession could leave it little leverage: “Montenegro would accept anything. They are very keen to conclude the process, almost at any cost.”