The European Commission’s proposed 15-year probation period could put new EU members at risk of losing voting rights after serious breaches of the bloc’s rules. The terms of national participation now sit at the centre of future accession negotiations.
Voting Rights Under Review
The Commission unveiled the measures on Tuesday. It says the “institutional safeguard clause” would be temporary and not discriminatory. Candidates, though, fear existing members could use it to exert political pressure or keep newcomers under restrictions beyond the proposed period.
The proposal contains no renewal mechanism. Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina's mission to the EU, said candidates still worried the probation period could become permanent. “The Commission stresses that this measure is temporary, but there is a significant risk that it might turn into a permanent status. What happens if the probation period gets repeatedly extended or its expiration blocked?” he said.
Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European integration, said Ukraine wanted full participation in the single market and predictable accession terms. “Our starting point remains full integration into the single market, and any transitional arrangements must be justified, proportionate and time-limited,” he told Euronews. He said Ukraine was counting on the EU to keep accession “ambitious, credible and predictable” and reflect the progress Ukraine continues to make.
Who Decides, and by What Standard?
Under the Commission’s proposal, safeguards would take effect unless a qualified majority of member states opposed them. The process differs from Article 7 of the EU treaty, which allows certain membership rights to be suspended if a member state seriously and persistently breaches the bloc’s core values. Action against a country undermining the Union’s functioning, however, requires unanimity among all other member states.
In Hungary's case, a sympathetic Polish government blocked action under the existing approach. The Commission says its proposed process would make triggering measures easier. The Commission itself, or a “reasoned request” from member states, could start the procedure.
A Commission official told Euronews that there would be “very active monitoring precisely in the fields that are covered by the new institutional safeguards.” The official said this monitoring would complement expanded rule-of-law reports and information collected under Article 7. Montenegro's ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said assessments of democratic and rule-of-law backsliding should rely on objective criteria and systematic breaches.
Accession Terms and National Leverage
The Netherlands and France have called for tougher safeguards, citing Hungary under Viktor Orbán and the difficulty of addressing democratic backsliding after a country joins. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said: “We do not want a two-tier membership to join our union. Countries need to meet very high standards on the rule of law. We need to be sure that after joining, they never fall below those standards again.”
The proposal is non-binding and is expected to become a major point of contention in the final stages of accession negotiations. Each accession treaty would set out the details, with safeguards tailored to the candidate’s circumstances, bargaining position and relations with current members. Kos said transitional periods “have to be negotiated between the member states and the country that wants to become a member of the EU.”
Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania and Moldova are the four frontrunners. Candidates have responded cautiously in public, but several have expressed unease behind closed doors, particularly about the 15-year period. Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research, warned that safeguards must not be abused: “New members should not be blackmailed by old members.” Cristina Gherasimov, Moldova's deputy prime minister for European integration, said her country’s objective remained “full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities.”
Montenegro is first in line to join. It could set a blueprint for later treaties. A diplomat from a candidate country told Euronews that Montenegro was “very keen to conclude the process, almost at any cost.”