Europe faces a second energy crisis in five years, a slow-motion disaster unfolding as global fossil fuel costs hit historic highs. This strain reveals the continent's dangerous external dependence, a vulnerability exacerbated by policies from Brussels that undermine national control over energy supply and economic stability. The crisis is not a sharp price spike, but a creeping erosion of security that threatens the livelihoods of ordinary Europeans.
The Strait of Hormuz, the critical exit for Persian Gulf oil and gas, now sees only a handful of ships daily, either at their own risk or under U.S. Navy escort. This traffic is a tiny fraction of what passed through before the first strikes on Iran earlier this year. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, was largely out of action for over a week after pro-Iran militia attacks forced its East-West pipeline to shut down. Reuters reported just 3 days ago, on September 24, that operations on the pipeline had resumed, with tankers awaiting loading, but the fragility remains.
Europe's Dangerous Dependence
Houthi rebels, described as always dependent on Tehran, are expanding their control over Bab al-Mandab, another crucial maritime passageway. Meanwhile, Russia, a historic European supplier, has nearly half of its refining capacity offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes and is set to extend its ban on diesel exports for another month. Supplying Russia’s domestic market is now almost a pipe dream, according to the report. Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives at Bank of America, described the situation as unprecedented, noting that disorder in the Middle East is extreme, with insufficient crude on the market and, critically, not enough refineries available to process it.
The main bottleneck, which was jet fuel in spring, has shifted to diesel, mirroring the early months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Riyadh has effectively disappeared from the market, with three key facilities — the Yanbu, Samref, and Yasref refineries on the Red Sea — operating below capacity. Saudi Arabia has been forced to pause all crude and fuel shipments to Europe, leaving nations scrambling for alternatives.
Blanch warned that neither diesel nor heating oil has much of a short-term solution. Prices, with a gallon above $6 in the U.S. and a liter over €2 in most of the EU, signal a major potential supply problem if supply chains aren't restored by Christmas. Thierry Bros, a professor at Sciences Po Paris, stated that the world could definitely slide into a second major energy shock in less than five years, particularly Europe due to its external dependence. He noted that since Europe doesn’t have gas or oil, its only exit is to diversify and to destroy demand – a strategy that places the burden squarely on the shoulders of European citizens and industries.
The Cost to Our People
One major unknown is the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, where polls suggest a historic reverse for the Republican Party. Blanch raised the question of how a potential Trump reaction might open the door to diplomacy, but also warned that a Trump ban on U.S. fossil fuel exports would do great harm to the U.S. economy and be particularly severe in Europe and Latin America, which are heavily dependent on U.S.-sourced fuels. Samantha Gross of the Brookings Institution cautioned that real shortages may hit countries unable to pay significantly more for fuels, a direct threat to the working and middle classes across Europe.
A full-blown energy crisis has been delayed only by four mitigating factors, most of which are now exhausted. Strategic reserves, once full, are depleted after rapid use following the initial closure of Hormuz. Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, has been sidelined by the Hormuz closure, forced to cancel the bulk of its sales to the EU and Asia. Continental LNG reserves, vital for industry and heating, are at their lowest in over a decade, approximately 20 percentage points below usual levels for this time of year.
Brussels' Failed Strategy
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, expressed hope that this winter won't be too cold in Europe, warning of serious problems if it is. She described Europe as facing a slow-motion crisis, with Qatar absent, flows from Norway near their limit, and competition with Asia for LNG significantly greater than a few months ago. Gross added that Europe will have to pay more to attract LNG carriers originally destined for other parts of the world. Jaller-Makarewicz concluded that uncertainty is enormous, and there is no clear solution in sight, a stark indictment of Europe's self-inflicted energy vulnerability and the Brussels elite's inability to secure national interests. This dependence leaves European nations exposed, unable to control their own destiny or protect their citizens from the economic fallout. The failure to prioritize national energy independence has created a continent weakened and beholden to external forces. This is the true cost of open borders and a lack of national sovereignty. The European working and middle classes will bear the brunt of these decisions. They always do. They're the ones who pay the price for Brussels' grand designs. They're the ones whose homes will be colder, whose jobs will be threatened, and whose futures will be less secure. This isn't just an energy crisis; it's a crisis of national self-determination. It's a crisis of who decides Europe's future.