European leaders welcomed news of a ceasefire deal with Iran, a development that follows direct military action and economic coercion by the United States to secure strategic trade routes and assert imperial dominance. Simultaneously, the US, through figures like JD Vance, is actively intervening in European political landscapes, shaping narratives and supporting allied factions of capital, as evidenced by Vance's presence in Budapest just 4 days before the Hungarian election.
JD Vance, speaking from Budapest, asserted that the military objective of "decimating the Iranian military" had been achieved. He stated that the focus had shifted to "reopening the straits" after former President Trump had instructed Iran to "stop trying to hold the world’s economy hostage." This framing reveals the direct link between military force and the safeguarding of global trade routes essential for capital accumulation.
Vance characterized the truce with Iran as "fragile," noting that while some in Iran responded "very favourable," others were "basically lying about what we have accomplished militarily" and "about the nature of the agreement." He conveyed that the president had instructed his negotiating team to "work in good faith to come to an agreement," but warned that if the Iranians "lie," "cheat," or "try to prevent even the fragile truce that we’ve set up from taking place, then they’re not going to be happy." This demonstrates the coercive nature of imperial diplomacy, where "good faith" is defined by compliance with the dominant power's demands.
Imperial Aims and Global Capital
In Hungary, Vance praised Viktor Orbán, calling him "a very, very important partner for peace" and stating that Orbán "does a good job, because he does." Vance claimed that "most of the European political capitals have not been nearly as helpful to the cause of peace between Russia and Ukraine as Viktor Orbán has." His presence, described as "unprecedented" for an American vice-president the week before an election, was explicitly to counter "garbage happening against Viktor in this election" and to show that "a lot of friends across the world who recognise that Viktor and his government are doing a good job, and they’re important partners for peace." This direct intervention highlights the projection of US imperial power to secure compliant governments and political alignments in Europe.
Vance also criticized European and UK energy policies, stating that "middle-class Britons could not afford to heat their homes or transport themselves to work because their leadership had made energy so expensive." He contrasted this with the United States' "lower energy costs" due to "smart decisions," suggesting a competition for capital advantage through energy policy. This directly links capitalist energy policies to the immiseration of the working class, whose wages are suppressed while essential costs rise due to decisions made by political leadership serving capital interests.
The State as Manager of Contradictions
The European Commission’s spokespeople reacted reluctantly to Vance’s comments regarding alleged EU interference in the Hungarian elections. The commission’s tech spokesperson Thomas Regnier stated that "what the European bureaucrats have been doing is [moving] to set out a strong framework to make sure that the elections remain in the hands of our citizens." The EU’s foreign spokesperson Anitta Hipper said, "We have also our diplomatic channels and we will be using these also to convey our concerns to our US counterparts," adding that the EU was "not in the business of disclosing what we talk about with our partners." Deputy chief spokesperson Arianna Podestà reiterated the use of "appropriate channels, appropriate frameworks, diplomatic contacts, [and] the joint statement" for discussions. These statements illustrate the bureaucratic opacity and limited scope of liberal state mechanisms in managing inter-imperialist rivalries, prioritizing diplomatic channels over transparency or fundamental structural change.
Germany rejected Vance’s accusations, with a government spokesperson stating that Vance’s presence in Hungary "already shows, or speaks for itself, who is interfering in what." Russia, however, backed Vance’s claims, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asserting that "many forces in Europe, many forces in Brussels, would not like Orbán to win the elections again." Peskov added that this was "obvious to the naked eye" and that these forces were "playing into the hands of those forces that politically oppose Orbán." This exchange underscores the ongoing inter-state rivalries and the maneuvering of various national capitals to protect their interests and influence political outcomes.
Electoral Limits and Class Power
In Hungary, a new Median poll for hvg.hu suggests the opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, could achieve a two-thirds majority in the upcoming election, projected to win between 138 and 143 seats out of 199. Viktor Orbán, who has governed for 16 years, transforming Hungary into an "illiberal democracy" through the use of a parliamentary supermajority to control institutions and target minorities, political opponents, and independent media, is projected to potentially lose the popular vote. This demonstrates the state's function as an enforcer of accumulated power, suppressing dissent and consolidating control for a ruling faction.
However, Hungarian "cardinal laws" require supermajorities to reform laws in critical areas like the judiciary. A failure to secure such a supermajority would limit the new government’s ability to reform Orbán-era laws and resolve tensions with Brussels to unlock EU funds. This reveals the inherent limitations of electoral politics within the existing state structure, where even a significant popular mandate can be constrained by entrenched legal frameworks designed to protect the status quo and the flow of capital.