EU Gas Tanks Run Dry as Governments Eye Household Rationing

The European Union's gas storage sits at 72 percent, down from the usual 90 percent, and EU energy ministers are now mulling whether to ask households and businesses to ration their consumption. That's according to news reports cited by Al Jazeera, after Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned that Europe is entering winter with historically low reserves. The shortfall, analysts say, equals the energy needed to power 10 to 12 million homes.

Birol, whose agency advises wealthy member nations and coordinates emergency responses, spoke on the sidelines of an international conference in Berlin on Wednesday. "Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year," he said. "I think if we have a harsh winter, we may see higher prices of natural gas in Europe." Gas has surged by 140 percent since February. Brent crude trades well above $100.

The Bill Arrives at the Kitchen Table

The cause, per the base reporting, is the US-Israel war on Iran and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a tenth of the continent's LNG transited before the war. Iran's attacks on vessels have plummeted imports. Europe now competes for cargoes with Asian countries that are even more dependent on the Middle East. Birol said Europe will likely face rising LNG costs in the coming months even if peace returned to the Gulf today. "The best day for a ceasefire would have been yesterday," he said.

Note who decides what happens next. Not the people who heat their homes with the stuff. Energy ministers, meeting behind closed doors, are weighing whether households should be asked to use less, while industries that run on gas and diesel sit in the same conversation.

Warnings Filed, Nothing Done

Birol was blunt about the people running the show. "I am really disappointed that governments didn't take the necessary measures," he said. Middle East countries are now building and expanding pipelines that bypass Hormuz, he noted, but "these efforts should have been done much earlier." His standard question to job applicants at the agency was what they'd do if the strait shut down today. The governments, apparently, never sat that exam.

He added that for years his agency warned the bloc was too tethered to Russian fuel. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the warnings came true after Moscow cut gas supplies in retaliation for sanctions. The EU plans to permanently phase out Russian gas. Yet amid the Gulf crisis, members like France have again stepped up orders.

The EU's ageing refineries have processed less crude in recent years, leaving the bloc short of imported refined products like the diesel that powers its trucking, agricultural and industrial sectors. Birol said Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries are also behind a looming diesel scarcity, with about a third of Russian deliveries no longer arriving.

Emergency Stocks, Emergency Theatre

When the G7 agreed in March to push 400 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves, Birol coordinated how those stocks reached global markets. It was the third such release he has overseen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, now in the fifth year of the conflict. Industry experts say the releases have limited use, with some estimating only a few months covered. Birol credits a $20 drop in oil prices straight after the agreement. Prices are climbing again.

The EU still holds about 80 percent of its emergency stocks, and Birol hopes he won't have to oversee a fourth release. "In the energy world, we don't have much more buffer zones to still keep the prices at a certain level," he said.

Who Cashes In on the Anger

Birol also noted that energy is reshaping European politics. Populist parties from France to Germany are capturing public anger to frame mainstream governments as incompetent. "Energy is not currently considered a business but a political leverage," he said. "As an energy man, this worries me."

He described the dark and long shadow of geopolitics as more dominant in energy than he's ever seen. The people who'll feel it first aren't in Brussels or Berlin. They're the ones counting radiators this winter while ministers count barrels.