EU Flies to COP31 to Say No to Money, Yes to Gas

Wopke Hoekstra, the EU's climate commissioner, was blunt about what Europe is bringing to the climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. "A conversation about fresh money [for developing countries] is not in the making and is neither planned nor desired to have for this COP," he said, as reported by the Financial Times. Not planned. Not desired. The Commission has looked at the bill for a burning planet and decided to skip that agenda item.

The numbers explain why the delegations from poorer countries are fuming. At the 2024 summit, the EU and other developed countries agreed to mobilise $300bn a year in climate finance by 2035. Developing countries say they need $1.3tn. That's a gap of a trillion dollars, and Brussels' answer this year is to "focus squarely on electrification." Hoekstra called COP31 "an implementation COP" and warned that "taking it into other domains is not going to be helpful." Other domains, in this case, includes the money.

Nepal Floods, Loss and Damage, and the Arithmetic of Neglect

The cost of that arithmetic is already visible. Floods hit Nepal in August, about three months ago. The UN allocated $20mn from its loss and damage fund. The estimated recovery cost: $4.7bn. Those who live on the receiving end of the climate crisis are being offered roughly four-tenths of one per cent of what they need to rebuild. The EU, for its part, announced last month that member states contributed €32.3bn to developing countries in 2025, and its negotiating mandate describes the bloc as "the largest provider of international public climate finance."

That same mandate admits the Paris Agreement's 1.5C ambition is "likely to be exceeded" and urges countries to "limit every additional fraction of degree of warming." Irish climate minister Darragh O'Brien, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, praised a "much more focused, strategic approach, with a slimmed-down set of objectives." Slimmed-down is one word for it.

Talking Green, Buying Gas

While ministers rehearse their lines about weaning economies off fossil fuels, Euronews reports that many governments are scrambling to secure more of them, amid energy turmoil triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran. All 27 member states endorsed the EU's COP31 position. Several are quietly shopping for gas.

Hungarian Energy Minister István Kapitány said Budapest is discussing gas purchases from Romania's Neptun Deep field and seeking more access to Croatian and Greek LNG terminals. "If someone stands on one leg, security is the most important question," he said. MOL CEO György Bacsa warned the situation is "no longer a marginal issue where you are simply willing to pay 10 or 20 percent more for green or non-Russian energy," and that soaring bills could "seriously undermine" the Hungarian and Slovak economies. Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou declared that "harnessing our energy resources is a matter of national importance." Wind and solar made up more than 40% of Greek generation in 2025, but their share didn't increase while gas gained ground. Romania's energy minister, Dumitru Chisăliță, warned on 15 October against measures undermining competitiveness, with Romanian industrial production 2.6% below the previous year, per Eurostat.

At home, the EU still advertises a 90 per cent emissions cut from 1990 levels. It is also giving industries more leeway under its emissions trading system, delaying methane rules and watering down its combustion-engine phaseout. Brussels wants a methane pledge pushed abroad while the rules at home slip.

The Electoral Trap and the Fossil Veto

The FT notes that national finances are stretched by preparedness needs after a summer of extreme heat and wildfires, and that the rise of climate-sceptic far-right parties makes more climate finance unlikely. Governments that can't or won't pay for the fires now burning at home are in no hurry to pay for the floods elsewhere. Last year's Brazil COP saw oil-producing countries block a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. At the 2024 summit, Saudi Arabia led attempts to block a stronger shift. The EU, meanwhile, faced pushback from China, India and other trade partners over its carbon border adjustment mechanism, which came into force in January, about 10 months ago.

The headline target in Antalya is a proposal from hosts Turkey and Australia to raise electricity's share of final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035. The International Energy Agency found cost-effective electrification could lift the global share to 33 per cent by 2035, two points short. A senior Commission official admitted that building on the COP28 Dubai commitment, made three years ago, to transition away from fossil fuels will be "politically difficult." Turkey's electrification focus, the report adds, draws criticism from environmental groups over its fossil fuel reliance and expansion.

Think-tank director Linda Kalcher says the EU shouldn't "obsess" over greater ambition: "We have very specific milestones... That's all in place. We just need to now show how it's done." Meanwhile, 57 countries, including 14 European ones, backed a declaration at the Santa Marta conference in Colombia to develop fossil fuel transition roadmaps. Fourteen European countries signed up; the other 13 member states of the EU's 27 didn't appear on that list. The summit opens, and the floods, the bills and the fires carry on regardless.