China delivered 97% of humanoid robots in the first half of 2026. European suppliers, meanwhile, are positioning themselves to sell the parts that make those machines move. A report from the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA estimates that the component market could be worth around 30 billion dollars by 2030. The industrial contest is already underway, but Europe has few finished humanoid robots of its own.
A market still being built
Research company Smart Analytics Global (SAG), which published its data in August 2026, counted about 19,100 humanoid robots delivered in the first half of the year. It expects about 60,000 to ship during all of 2026, rising to half a million by 2030. China has overtaken the United States in deliveries. Agibot, based in the greater Shanghai area, had delivered 8,400 robots, while U.S. firms Tesla, Figure AI and Agility Robotics lagged behind, according to the report.
The figures describe a market taking shape around industrial competition and production plans, not a settled technology. Commercially productive use remains limited, mass production hasn’t yet arrived, and the market remains unsettled. SAG said Chinese industry, backed by the government, is trying to accelerate deployment in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, where robots could handle clearly defined tasks. The leap from “robots that can put on a show” to “robots that can work reliably” still hasn’t been made, the company said.
Vincent Bezold, head of the Automated Manufacturing Systems business segment at IPA and author of its specialist report, said: “In principle, the potential along the German and European supply chain is very large.” IPA and consultancy P3 examined what suppliers might capture. European manufacturers already have expertise and production facilities for components, and recent comparisons indicate an advantage over Chinese-made parts in some areas.
Who gets to shape the machine
A conventional industrial robot uses seven joints; a humanoid robot needs more than 40. Each joint contains a motor, gearbox, bearing and sensor. German firms Schaeffler, Bosch, Schunk, Wittenstein and Neugart make gearboxes, motors, sensors or grippers through their traditional automotive-supplier businesses. Chinese companies also make components, but the article says their parts have significantly shorter lifetimes.
Sebastian Reitelshöfer, head of robotics research at the University of Erlangen–Nuremberg, told the ARD-Finanzredaktion: “They don’t happen to run, as recently in Beijing, a half marathon as a PR stunt by chance. They do it because they wouldn’t withstand a full marathon.” He said some components in showcase models would last “one or two weeks.” Some Chinese showcase models struggle with durability under heavy loads, while some European automotive-sector designs last longer.
Supplier chains tend to form near original manufacturers, Bezold said. “As a large proportion of humanoids currently comes from China, corresponding supplier structures are likely to form there as well, just as they did in Germany around the automotive industry.” He identified specialised components as a particular gap. Europe’s biggest shortcoming is access to robot manufacturers, he said, because relatively few manufacturers operate in Europe and few humanoid robots are built there. That makes it harder for European suppliers to join relevant value chains early.
The sales pitch meets the policy gap
Schaeffler unveiled a gearbox developed specifically for humanoid robots in August. The company said a new production method could cut manufacturing costs by more than 25% and material use by over 75%. Its President Humanoid Robotics, David Kehr, said the company was preparing the component for high-volume series production. Series production is expected to start in mid-2027.
At Hannover Messe in April 2026, Schaeffler received the Hermes Award for its actuators platform for shoulder, elbow and knee joints. The company said actuators account for around 50% of a humanoid robot’s total cost and are a key factor in competitiveness. Schaeffler wants to shape part of the robot’s architecture, not just sell one component.
Bosch and Schunk have worked together since June 2026 on a robot hand designed to fit different humanoid systems. Bosch is expected to manufacture it in series; the hand must grip different workpieces, vary force and work reliably for long periods. The report says hardware matters as much as software to economic viability, scalability and industrial impact. IPA and P3 call for coordinated action by industry, policymakers and researchers, and criticise funding policies focused exclusively on artificial intelligence.
The VDMA’s “Humanoid Robotics 2040” study says annual sales in the millions could be possible by 2042 and calls for “far more capital, stronger support for start-ups and bolder industrial steps.” Bezold said: “We ourselves need more manufacturers of humanoid robots in Europe.” Whether Europe becomes a component supplier to robots from China and the United States or builds its own industrial strength remains unclear. The report identifies who sets technical standards and architectures as a key factor in the next generation.