China delivered 97% of the world’s humanoid robots in the first half of 2026. Europe isn’t trying to catch up in finished machines; it’s positioning itself as the supplier of precision components those robots depend on. The question is whether European policymakers and industry can move quickly enough to capture a market worth around 30 billion dollars by 2030.
Research company Smart Analytics Global reported that about 19,100 humanoid robots were delivered in the first half of 2026, based on data published in August 2026. Researchers expect about 60,000 robots to ship during all of 2026, with deliveries rising to half a million by 2030. China has overtaken the United States in deliveries. Agibot, based in the greater Shanghai area, delivered 8,400 robots, while U.S. firms Tesla, Figure AI and Agility Robotics lagged behind, according to the report.
Yet there’s a crucial gap between Chinese ambition and engineering reality. Commercially productive use remains limited, mass production hasn’t arrived, and the market remains unsettled. Backed by the government, China’s industry is trying to accelerate deployment in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, where robots could perform clearly defined tasks. But Smart Analytics Global said the leap from “robots that can put on a show” to “robots that can work reliably” has yet to be made.
The Quality Problem Europe Can Solve
This is where Germany enters. German and European suppliers already have expertise and production facilities for components humanoid robots desperately need. Each robot needs more than 40 joints, and every joint contains a motor, gearbox, bearing and sensor. German firms Schaeffler, Bosch, Schunk, Wittenstein and Neugart make these parts through their traditional automotive-supplier businesses. Decades of precision engineering matter here.
Sebastian Reitelshöfer, head of robotics research at the University of Erlangen–Nuremberg, offered a blunt assessment of Chinese component durability. “They don’t happen to run, as recently in Beijing, a half marathon as a PR stunt by chance,” he said in an interview. “They do it because they wouldn’t withstand a full marathon.” Some components in showcase models would last only “one or two weeks,” he noted. Under heavy loads, some Chinese showcase models have durability problems, while some European automotive-sector designs last significantly longer.
Vincent Bezold, head of the Automated Manufacturing Systems business segment at Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA and author of its specialist report, put it plainly: “In principle, the potential along the German and European supply chain is very large.”
Schaeffler, an automotive supplier based in Herzogenaurach, unveiled a gearbox developed specifically for humanoid robots in August. Its strain wave gear is a high-precision specialist gearbox designed to transmit movement accurately and powerfully in a small installation space. The company said the gearbox meets core requirements for humanoid robot joints. A new production method could cut manufacturing costs by more than 25% and material use by over 75%. Series production is expected to start in mid-2027.
At Hannover Messe in April 2026, Schaeffler received the Hermes Award for developing humanoid robot joints. The award recognised its actuators platform for shoulder, elbow and knee joints. Schaeffler said actuators account for around 50% of a humanoid robot’s total cost and are a key factor in competitiveness. The company wants to shape part of the robot’s architecture, not just sell an individual component.
Building Supply Chains Before They’re Gone
Bosch and Schunk have worked together since June 2026 on a robot hand designed to integrate into different humanoid systems. Schunk has spent around 20 years developing robot hands and specialises in gripping technology. Bosch brings precision mechanics, electronics and software, and is expected to manufacture the hand in series. When the companies announced their collaboration, Mathias Pillin, Chief Technology Officer at Robert Bosch GmbH, said: “Robot hands are a key component in advancing humanoid robotics in production and enabling more flexible and precise work than with conventional gripping systems.”
But Europe faces a timing problem. Supplier chains tend to develop near original manufacturers. Bezold warned: “As a large proportion of humanoids currently comes from China, corresponding supplier structures are likely to form there as well, just as they did in Germany around the automotive industry.” Specialised components are a particular gap, he said.
The Fraunhofer IPA and consultancy P3 examined supplier opportunities in a joint report. They concluded that Europe’s challenge isn’t whether it builds its own humanoid robot, but where the industrial value chain develops. “Access to manufacturers of humanoid robots” is Europe’s biggest shortcoming, Bezold said, because Europe has relatively few manufacturers and builds few humanoid robots today. “That makes it harder for European suppliers to become part of the relevant value chains at an early stage,” he explained.
The Policy Question
In its “Humanoid Robotics 2040” study, published in April 2026, Germany’s mechanical and plant engineering association VDMA argues that the whole production and supply chain should move to Europe. The study says annual sales in the millions could be possible by 2042. But VDMA is clear about what’s needed: Europe would require “far more capital, stronger support for start-ups and bolder industrial steps.”
The Fraunhofer IPA and P3 report says hardware matters as much as software to the economic viability, scalability and industrial impact of humanoid robots. Both organisations call for coordinated action by industry, policymakers and researchers. Suppliers that engage early with actuators, gearboxes, batteries, dexterous hands and lightweight structures can help shape future reference architectures and secure positions in emerging supply chains.
IPA also criticises funding policies that focus exclusively on artificial intelligence. The institute says the opportunity is tangible if action happens immediately.
Bezold made a simple case for urgency: “We ourselves need more manufacturers of humanoid robots in Europe.” The industry association recommends treating humanoid robots as a priority and joining the supply chain as early as possible. Bezold said users should be told not to fear backing projects even when the precise outcome isn’t clear at the outset.
Why This Matters:
Europe risks repeating a pattern that drained manufacturing capacity over decades. This isn’t about building flashy finished products that lose money for shareholders; it’s about securing the supply chains that power the next generation of industrial technology. If European companies like Schaeffler and Bosch establish themselves now as trusted component suppliers for humanoid robotics, they protect high-skilled manufacturing jobs and industrial capacity in Germany, France, and across the continent. If they don’t move fast, Chinese manufacturers will build both the robots and the supply chains, leaving Europe as a buyer, not a builder. The VDMA study projects possible annual sales in the millions by 2042, but that requires coordinated investment and political will today. Whether Europe treats robotics as a genuine strategic priority, backed by capital and start-up support, will determine whether German precision engineering remains a source of competitive advantage or becomes a memory of industrial strength.