Europe's three dominant political families — the centre-right European People's Party, the centrist Renew Europe, and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats — are projected to lose their EU-level majority for the first time since the European Parliament's creation, according to new seat projections published yesterday by Europe Elects. The data, drawn from voting intentions across all EU member states and modelled on each country's electoral law, marks a watershed moment. The centrist forces that have shaped European politics since the Second World War would fall short of the 361 seats needed to command the chamber.
The Socialists and Democrats face the steepest losses, shedding 18 MEPs. The European People's Party would lose 15, and Renew nine. The Greens/EFA group, which has often provided crucial support to the parliamentary majority in the current term, would drop 14 seats. Meanwhile, the hard-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group — which includes Alternative for Germany, currently projected as the leading German party — would gain 19 seats. The far-left group The Left is also projected to gain 19 seats, driven largely by leftist parties in France and Germany. But most of the projected gains sit on the right of the chamber.
The Right's Advance
Patriots for Europe, which includes Marine Le Pen's National Rally, is projected to gain 12 seats, driven by Spain's Vox and Austria's Freedom Party. The European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, is due to remain largely stable with three additional MEPs. The hierarchy of political groups by size would largely hold, with the European People's Party remaining first, followed by the Socialists and Democrats, Patriots for Europe, the European Conservatives and Reformists, and Renew. But the gap between the two main centrist forces and the largest right-wing group would narrow sharply. Renew's position would be increasingly challenged by The Left.
The Greens/EFA group would slip behind The Left and the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations, becoming the smallest force in the Parliament — even as its votes become more pivotal than ever, since centrist parties would need the Greens more than at any point to form a majority. One of the most significant shifts would occur within the European People's Party itself, where Spain's Popular Party and Poland's Civic Platform would become the largest national delegations, ending the German Christian Democratic Union's decade-long dominance of the group.
Coalition Arithmetic and Institutional Power
At the same time, the European People's Party would likely strengthen its position further, retaining the ability to form an alternative majority with right-wing parties, already a source of significant leverage for the centre-right group in day-to-day negotiations. The European Conservatives and Reformists' standing could also be bolstered, having already gained significant institutional roles and legislative influence in the current term, potentially becoming more mainstream in the next.
According to Europe Elects' director Tobias Gerhard Schminke, the latest projections confirm political trends that have defined the EU's electoral landscape in recent years. "The first one that's often overlooked is that we see a fragmentation in the political system. So the EPP has about 21% support now in Europe. So, it will require a lot of political families to come together to form a majority," Schminke told Euronews. He also pointed to eroding support for the political centre, part of a broader decline in consensus around liberal democracy, human rights and cooperation between European states within the EU framework.
Another trend he noted is that within the radical-right camp, forces like Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Le Pen's National Rally have reached a plateau, while most growth is coming from the more extreme forces gathered under the Europe of Sovereign Nations umbrella. The next European Parliament elections aren't due until June 2029, and three years is a long time in politics. Parliamentary groups can also shift before or after elections, which inevitably affects the distribution of power in the chamber.
The Cordon Sanitaire Under Pressure
Still, if these trends hold through the next elections, they would further test the EU's unwritten cordon sanitaire: the agreement among mainstream parties to keep extremist forces from power. "What we still see is an incremental increase of the radical right camp overall. And we're now at the point where it is difficult to ignore these parties when it comes to coalition dynamics, be it in the European Parliament or at the national level," Schminke said. The 2024 European Parliament elections already saw a significant shift in the political barycentre to the right, with right-of-centre parties gaining almost 60 MEPs, much of it driven by far-right, conservative and national-populist forces.
Why This Matters:
The projected collapse of the centrist majority reflects a fundamental shift in European political gravity. For decades, the EPP, S&D, and Renew alliance has controlled the legislative agenda, Commission appointments, and budget priorities. Without that majority, every major decision — from migration policy to fiscal rules to climate regulation — becomes a negotiation involving parties the mainstream once excluded. The European People's Party's ability to form alternative coalitions with right-wing groups gives it unprecedented leverage, but also tests the limits of the cordon sanitaire. If centrist parties need Green votes to govern, expect climate and regulatory ambitions to clash with fiscal discipline and competitiveness concerns. The fragmentation Schminke describes isn't just arithmetic. It's a crisis of legitimacy for the Brussels consensus model itself.