Europe’s mainstream political parties are projected to lose their EU-level majority for the first time, according to a new Europe Elects projection published yesterday. This shift signals a deepening crisis for migrant rights and the further entrenchment of Fortress Europe, as right-wing and populist forces gain significant ground across the continent. The centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the centrist Renew Europe, and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have historically formed the parliamentary majority, but new data suggests this will no longer be the case.
The projection, based on voting intentions from each EU member state, highlights a sustained downward trajectory for the political centre. The 2024 European Parliament elections already saw a significant move to the right, with right-of-centre parties securing nearly 60 additional MEPs. Much of this growth came from far-right, conservative, and national-populist groups, whose platforms consistently advocate for harsher border controls and the criminalisation of movement.
Fortress Europe's Political Shift
The Socialists and Democrats are projected to suffer the largest loss, shedding 18 MEPs. The European People's Party would lose 15 seats, and Renew nine. The Greens/EFA group, which often supported the current majority, is also projected to be further reduced, losing 14 seats. This weakening of traditional and nominally progressive forces directly empowers those who champion a more exclusionary border regime.
Meanwhile, the hard-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group, which includes Alternative for Germany (AfD), is projected to gain 19 seats. The AfD is currently projected as the leading German party. The far-left group The Left is also projected to gain 19 seats, driven by leftist parties in France and Germany. However, most of the projected gains are concentrated on the right of the chamber, solidifying anti-migrant sentiment within the EU's legislative body.
Patriots for Europe, which includes Marine Le Pen's National Rally, Spain's Vox, and Austria's Freedom Party, is projected to gain 12 seats. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), dominated by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, is expected to remain largely stable, with three additional MEPs. These parties have consistently pushed for policies that increase deterrence through death and expand the deportation machine.
The Erosion of Rights
The hierarchy of political groups would largely remain, with the EPP still the largest, followed by the S&D, Patriots for Europe, the ECR, and Renew. However, the gap between the two main centrist forces and the largest right-wing group would narrow sharply. Renew's position would be increasingly challenged by The Left, while the Greens/EFA group would slip behind both The Left and the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations, becoming the smallest force in the Parliament.
Tobias Gerhard Schminke, director of Europe Elects, noted that the projections confirm a fragmentation in the political system. He told Euronews that the EPP now has about 21% support in Europe, meaning many political families will need to come together to form a majority. Schminke also pointed to eroding support for the political centre, part of a broader decline in consensus around liberal democracy, human rights, and cooperation between European states within the EU framework. This erosion directly undermines the already fragile protections for asylum seekers and migrants.
The Radical Right's Ascent
Within the European People's Party itself, Spain's Popular Party and Poland's Civic Platform are set to become the largest national delegations, ending the German Christian Democratic Union's decade-long dominance. The EPP would likely strengthen its ability to form an alternative majority with right-wing parties, giving the centre-right group significant leverage in negotiations. The ECR's standing could also be bolstered, having already gained institutional roles and legislative influence in the current term, potentially becoming more mainstream in the next Parliament.
Schminke observed that while forces like Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Le Pen's National Rally have reached a plateau, most growth within the radical-right camp is coming from the more extreme forces under the Europe of Sovereign Nations umbrella. He stated that there is an "incremental increase of the radical right camp overall," making it "difficult to ignore these parties when it comes to coalition dynamics." These trends, if they hold until the next European Parliament elections in June 2029, would further test the EU's unwritten cordon sanitaire, pushing Europe further towards an openly anti-migrant political order.