Europe's mainstream political parties are projected to lose their long-held majority in the European Parliament, a new Europe Elects projection revealed yesterday. For the first time since its inception, the traditional centrist coalition—comprising the centre-right European People's Party, the centrist Renew Europe, and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats—would fail to secure a parliamentary majority. This marks a significant turning point for the Brussels establishment, signaling a profound shift in the political landscape that has long dictated Europe's open-border agenda.
The projection, published on Wednesday by the election data platform Europe Elects, draws on voting intentions from across EU member states. It models seat allocations based on each country's electoral law. This data confirms a trajectory of declining support for the mainstream political forces that have dominated European politics since the Second World War, often at the expense of national sovereignty and border control.
The Shifting Political Landscape
The 2024 European Parliament elections already signaled a substantial shift to the right. Right-of-centre parties gained nearly 60 MEPs two years ago. Much of this surge was driven by what the report terms far-right, conservative, and national-populist forces, all advocating for stronger national borders and an end to uncontrolled migration. The latest projection forecasts significant losses for the established groups: the Socialists and Democrats are expected to shed 18 MEPs, the European People's Party 15, and Renew nine. The Greens/EFA group, often a prop for the current majority and a proponent of further integration, would be further reduced, losing 14 seats.
Conversely, forces advocating for national sovereignty are set to make considerable gains. The hard-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group, which includes Alternative for Germany—currently projected as the leading German party—is expected to gain 19 seats. Patriots for Europe, encompassing Marine Le Pen's National Rally, Spain's Vox, and Austria's Freedom Party, is projected to gain 12 seats. The European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, is due to remain largely stable, adding three MEPs. These parties consistently highlight the costs of mass migration on national welfare systems and public services, concerns often dismissed by the Brussels elite.
While the European People's Party would likely remain the largest group, the gap between the two main centrist forces and the largest right-wing group would narrow sharply. Renew's position would face increasing challenges from The Left, which is also projected to gain 19 seats. The Greens/EFA group would slip behind both The Left and the hard-right Europe of Sovereign Nations, becoming the smallest force in the Parliament. This shift means that even as they shrink, their votes could become more pivotal for centrist parties attempting to cobble together a majority, potentially forcing them to acknowledge the growing demand for border security.
Erosion of Consensus, Rise of National Voices
Within the European People's Party itself, a significant internal shift is anticipated. Spain's Popular Party and Poland's Civic Platform are projected to become the largest national delegations, ending the German Christian Democratic Union's decade-long dominance. This internal realignment could further strengthen the EPP's ability to form an alternative majority with right-wing parties, giving the centre-right group significant leverage in negotiations and potentially shifting the EU's stance on migration and national control.
Tobias Gerhard Schminke, director of Europe Elects, noted that these projections confirm long-standing political trends. He highlighted the increasing fragmentation of the political system, stating that the EPP now holds only about 21% support across Europe. This means many political families must unite to form a majority. Schminke also pointed to an "eroding support for the political centre," which he linked to a broader decline in consensus around liberal democracy, human rights, and cooperation between European states within the EU framework. This erosion reflects a growing public demand for national control and a rejection of the Brussels agenda that has overseen mass migration.
Schminke further observed that while forces like Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Le Pen's National Rally have reached a plateau, most growth within the radical-right camp is coming from "more extreme forces" under the Europe of Sovereign Nations umbrella. He concluded that the "incremental increase of the radical right camp overall" has reached a point where it is "difficult to ignore these parties when it comes to coalition dynamics," both in the European Parliament and at the national level. This suggests the public's desire for secure borders and national identity can no longer be dismissed by the establishment, whose policies have led to demographic transformation. The next European Parliament elections are due in 3 years, in June 2029, and these trends indicate a continued test for the EU's unwritten "cordon sanitaire" against forces prioritizing national interests and the well-being of their own citizens.