Midterm Ballot Could Shift Control of Congress

Brandon Waithe held a line-dancing event in a Cleveland public plaza the previous month through Project HALO, hoping to connect voting with a positive feeling. “There's no pressure. ... We're not telling you which party to vote for or which candidate,” he said. Across the campaign, parties and nonpartisan groups worked to turn out voters for an election that will decide who controls Congress—and whether Republicans keep control of all of Washington.

Who Holds the Levers

Republicans held 53 Senate seats, and Democrats needed to flip four states to take the majority, according to The New York Times' final polling coverage. Democrats led in final polls in six of seven Senate battleground states, including Texas and Kansas, but the outcome remained uncertain. Vice President JD Vance would break a potential 50-50 tie. The arithmetic is neat; the contest isn't.

The Times said Democrats were favored to win the House and needed to flip only a few seats. The party out of power typically gains seats in a midterm. Republicans had controlled all of Washington since President Trump's second inauguration, and Tuesday's election will decide control of Congress for the final two years of his term. A change in congressional control would work through the same institutions Republicans hold now.

Trump's popularity was at all-time lows, and the election had become a referendum on the president and whether voter aversion to him would extend to other Republicans. The Los Angeles Times called the campaign acutely contentious and historically expensive. Polls consistently put Democrats several points ahead on the generic ballot, while showing historically low approval for Trump.

A Close Contest, A Narrow Remedy

Seven Senate seats remained toss-ups. A Democratic majority would require what Thaddeus Kousser, a UC San Diego political science professor, called a “massive” wave, though he said the possibility reflected an “extraordinary situation.” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said a small shift could decide several races: “Just a little bit better night for the Democrats, and they pick up quite a number of these very close seats. Just a little bit better night for the Republicans, and Democrats fall slightly short in several of these competitive seats.”

Affordability and economic concerns shaped the midterm, alongside fatigue with Trump tied to the Iran war, immigration policy, tariffs, housing and AI. Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University, described voting as “an opportunity for the American people to try to put some brakes on the government.” Christopher Warshaw, a Georgetown University public policy professor, said midterms can check every presidency: “The reason we have a democracy is in part because the out party does well in midterm elections. That function of midterms is really important regardless of who's in power.”

The race also brought cross-party surprises. Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Senate primary to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers, drawing angry criticism from Democrats. A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showed El-Sayed leading Rogers by 11 points. In Alaska, a judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that sought to block certification of the Senate race if the Republican narrowly lost.

Participation, Organized from Below

Both parties sought independent voters and worked to turn out their bases. Nonpartisan organizations held last-minute voting events, while a hotline run by a nonprofit coalition organized by the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law received hundreds of calls a day about voting. The source describes the calls but gives no further details about the assistance provided.

Waithe, 42, an Air Force veteran, organized turnout events through Project HALO. At his Cleveland event, he said, “It's like, ‘Ah, cool, all right, voting's not so bad.’ There's no pressure. ... We're not telling you which party to vote for or which candidate. We're just like, ‘Thank you for participating in voting.’” The grassroots effort encouraged participation without choosing a candidate.

The House majority might become clear Tuesday night, though slow counts in states including California and Pennsylvania could delay the final margin. If the Senate majority depends on close races in Maine or Alaska, verification could take several days. Kousser told people, “you're going to have to buckle up and wait.” David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political science professor, said the electorate was volatile and predicted, “There will be a surprise on election night.”