Two million Palestinians are sheltering in rodent-infested tent camps, amid the rubble of their old neighborhoods or inside war-damaged buildings at risk of collapse. That's Gaza one year after a ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump and Arab allies promised to end the war. Israel still carries out deadly strikes. Almost nothing has been rebuilt.
The deal did real good. It halted major military operations, freed all remaining hostages and increased humanitarian access. But its harder commitments haven't been met: a new Palestinian administration aided by international forces, Hamas' disarmament, and an end to Israeli control over more than half of Gaza.
Who Is Affected
The human toll is staggering and still climbing. Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and abducted 251 in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that began the war, which now marks its third anniversary. Israel's response—a bombardment and ground invasion—has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. The ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, keeps detailed records; U.N. agencies and independent experts generally consider it reliable. It doesn't distinguish civilians from militants, and it says women and children make up around half the dead.
The ceasefire hasn't stopped the killing. The ministry says Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,400 Palestinians since it took effect. Israel has regularly struck people it accused of violating the truce, approaching the so-called yellow line or taking part in the Oct. 7 attack. Civilians have often died in those strikes. Sporadic attacks have killed five Israeli soldiers in Gaza over the same period.
The Policy Gap
The 20-point agreement followed months of negotiations under the Biden and Trump administrations. It called for Hamas to hand power to a committee of Palestinian administrators vetted by the Board of Peace, a new body chaired by Trump and charged with implementing the ceasefire. Hamas officially dissolved its government in July but left the civil service intact. It remains the dominant power in roughly 40% of Gaza not controlled by the Israeli military. Israel has barred the new Palestinian administration from entering Gaza through Egypt.
The international security plan hasn't materialized either. Officials announced an International Stabilization Force in February, but it never arrived. Indonesia, which pledged the largest contingent at 8,000 soldiers, put its plans on hold last spring as attention shifted to the Iran war.
Israel was supposed to withdraw. Instead, it has taken more territory, pushing the yellow Line of Control west toward the Mediterranean Sea.
At the summit marking the deal, Trump struck a hopeful note. "We have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put the old feuds and bitter hatreds behind us," he said.
Official Response and Political Calculus
Israel has tied any progress to Hamas' complete disarmament. Hamas and the Trump administration say the steps should happen simultaneously. In July, Trump announced a deal to disarm Hamas, calling it a breakthrough. The agreement, an extension of the original ceasefire, called for disarmament "in a gradual, sequential and time-bound manner" linked to phased Israeli withdrawal. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, tying the process to Israel halting strikes and withdrawing.
Days later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel wouldn't withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas was completely disarmed. He explicitly rejected the agreement Trump had announced, openly defying his most important ally. The timing matters: Israeli elections arrive Oct. 27, and they could end Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule, the longest in Israel's history. He has faced criticism over security and intelligence failures before Oct. 7, with opponents accusing him of being soft on Hamas. That leaves little room for even minor compromises on Gaza, at least until a new government forms, a process that could take months.
Why This Matters:
Leaders trade positions. Civilians pay the price, with no say in the bargaining. Gaza's two million residents live in unsafe shelter, while reconstruction stalls and strikes continue. The stalled deal shows how a ceasefire without enforcement can freeze a humanitarian crisis rather than resolve it. The Board of Peace, the stabilization force and the new administration were meant to turn a pause in fighting into recovery. None is functioning as promised. Israeli politics are unlikely to shift before a new government forms, leaving Gaza's people facing months more in limbo; the source itself notes that a return to fighting can't be ruled out.