A year after President Donald Trump and Arab allies brokered a ceasefire meant to end the Gaza war, Hamas remains armed and controls roughly 40% of the territory. Almost nothing has been rebuilt.
The deal delivered on some points. It halted major military operations, freed all remaining hostages and increased humanitarian access. But its harder commitments haven’t been met: a new Palestinian administration aided by international forces, Hamas’ disarmament, and an end to Israeli control over more than half of Gaza.
The Disarmament Dispute
At the center of the stalemate is a sequencing fight. Israel has tied any progress to Hamas’ complete disarmament. Hamas and the Trump administration say the steps should happen simultaneously.
In July, Trump announced a deal to disarm Hamas, calling it a breakthrough in the long-stalled process. The agreement, an extension of the original ceasefire, called for Hamas to disarm “in a gradual, sequential and time-bound manner” linked to an Israeli withdrawal in phases. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm. But it also tied the process to Israel halting strikes and withdrawing from Gaza.
Days later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel wouldn’t withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas had been completely disarmed, explicitly rejecting the agreement Trump had announced. He’s openly defying his most important ally ahead of Oct. 27 elections that could end his nearly unbroken 17-year rule, the longest in Israel’s history. Opponents accuse him of being soft on Hamas, and he’s faced criticism over the security and intelligence failures that preceded the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Hamas Dissolves Its Government, Keeps Its Grip
The agreement required Hamas to transfer power to a committee of Palestinian administrators vetted by the Board of Peace, a body chaired by Trump and charged with implementing the ceasefire. Hamas officially dissolved its government in July. But it left the civil service intact and remains the dominant power in the roughly 40% of Gaza not controlled by the Israeli military.
Israel has barred the new Palestinian administration from entering Gaza through Egypt.
Security Gaps and a Stalled Force
The International Stabilization Force, announced in February, hasn’t materialized. Indonesia pledged the largest contingent, 8,000 soldiers, but put those plans on hold last spring as attention shifted to the Iran war.
On the ground, the ceasefire has been far from quiet. Israel has pushed the so-called yellow Line of Control west toward the Mediterranean Sea, taking more territory rather than withdrawing. It has also regularly struck people it accused of violating the ceasefire, approaching the yellow line or participating in the Oct. 7 attack. Those strikes have often killed civilians. The Gaza Health Ministry says Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,400 Palestinians since the ceasefire took effect. The ministry is part of the Hamas-run government, though U.N. agencies and independent experts generally consider its records reliable. Sporadic attacks have killed five Israeli soldiers in Gaza during the same period.
The Human Toll
Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians are in limbo. Most shelter in rodent-infested tent camps, amid rubble where their neighborhoods once stood, or in war-damaged buildings at risk of collapse.
The war began with the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023, now in its third anniversary year. Militants killed about 1,200 people and abducted 251. Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion have killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish civilians from militants. It says women and children make up around half the dead.
After the deal was announced, Trump called for a new era of harmony. “We have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put the old feuds and bitter hatreds behind us,” he said at a summit marking the agreement.
That chance looks narrower now. Netanyahu’s position leaves little room for even minor compromises on Gaza, at least until a new government is formed, a process that could take months. Meanwhile, Hamas remains weakened but in power. Virtually nothing has been rebuilt, and a return to fighting can’t be ruled out.
Why This Matters:
The Gaza ceasefire shows how fragile a deal becomes when its enforcement mechanisms never arrive. Hamas, the group that carried out the Oct. 7 attack, still holds power over a large share of the territory and hasn’t surrendered its weapons. No stabilization force has deployed, and a promised civilian administration can’t even enter Gaza. Reconstruction, which would require private capital and donor confidence, can’t begin without security and clear governance. Israeli voters head to the polls Oct. 27 with the disarmament question unresolved. For Washington, the open split between Trump and Netanyahu tests whether American-brokered agreements can hold when a key ally sets its own terms. Without a credible path to disarmament, a return to fighting remains a real risk.