One year after the ceasefire agreement, Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians remain in limbo. Israel still carries out deadly strikes, almost nothing has been rebuilt, and Egypt has barred the proposed Palestinian administration from entering the territory. The agreement’s commitments on governance, disarmament and Israeli withdrawal remain unfulfilled.
A ceasefire without a settled authority
The 20-point agreement, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump and Arab allies after months of negotiations under the Biden and Trump administrations, halted major military operations, secured the return of all remaining hostages and increased humanitarian access. It also set out a plan for Hamas to transfer power to a committee of Palestinian administrators vetted by the Board of Peace, a new body chaired by Trump and charged with implementing the ceasefire.
Hamas officially dissolved its government in July but left the civil service intact. It remains the dominant power in roughly 40% of Gaza, an area the Israeli military doesn’t control. Israel has barred the new Palestinian administration from entering Gaza through Egypt, leaving the agreement’s proposed governing arrangement unrealized.
The deal also called for an International Stabilization Force. Officials announced its formation in February, but the force has not materialized. Indonesia, which pledged the largest contingent, 8,000 soldiers, put those plans on hold last spring as attention shifted to the Iran war.
The agreement called for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. Instead, Israel has taken more territory, pushing the so-called yellow Line of Control west toward the Mediterranean Sea.
Disarmament and withdrawal remain disputed
Israel has tied progress on the agreement’s other commitments to Hamas’ complete disarmament. Hamas and the Trump administration say the steps should happen at the same time. That disagreement has stalled implementation of a deal that linked changes in control of Gaza to the disarmament process.
In July, Trump announced a deal to disarm Hamas, calling it a breakthrough in the long-stalled process. The agreement, an extension of the original ceasefire, said Hamas would disarm “in a gradual, sequential and time-bound manner” linked to an Israeli withdrawal in phases. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, while also linking disarmament to Israel halting strikes and withdrawing from Gaza.
Days later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel wouldn’t withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas had been completely disarmed, explicitly rejecting the agreement Trump had announced. Netanyahu hardened his position over the summer, openly defying Trump, his most important ally.
Civilians remain exposed
Most Palestinians in Gaza shelter in rodent-infested tent camps, rubble in their former neighborhoods or war-damaged buildings at risk of collapse. The Gaza Health Ministry says Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,400 Palestinians since the ceasefire took effect. Sporadic attacks have killed five Israeli soldiers in Gaza during the same period.
Israel has regularly struck people it accused of violating the ceasefire, approaching the yellow line or participating in the Oct. 7 attack; those attacks have often killed civilians. The Gaza Health Ministry says Israel’s wider military campaign has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians. The ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, keeps detailed records and U.N. agencies and independent experts generally consider it reliable. It doesn’t distinguish civilians from militants in its count and says women and children make up around half the dead.
Political pressure narrows room for compromise
Netanyahu faces Oct. 27 elections that could end his nearly unbroken 17-year rule, the longest in Israel’s history. He has faced criticism over security and intelligence failures leading up to the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, with opponents accusing him of being soft on Hamas. The source says that leaves little room for even minor compromises on Gaza until a new government forms, a process that could take months.
At the summit marking the deal, Trump called for a new era of harmony in the Middle East: “We have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put the old feuds and bitter hatreds behind us.” The anniversary brings no clear end to the crisis. Hamas remains weakened but in power, almost nothing has been rebuilt, and a return to fighting can’t be ruled out.