Who Gets to Decide Gaza's Fate
Plans for the Gaza International Stabilization Force are in question as troop pledges stall, while efforts to shore up the fragile ceasefire have stalled as Hamas has refused to disarm and Israel has seized more territory while continuing to strike what it says are militant targets, often killing civilians. The machinery of “peace” announced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in February is already bogged down, with the American general tapped to lead the 20,000-strong force still having no force to lead.
The International Stabilization Force for Gaza was announced at the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in February, and U.S. Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers said it would ensure “future prosperity and enduring peace” after the devastating Israel-Hamas war. Three months on, none of the five countries that pledged troops have come through with any significant contributions, leaving the plan stranded in the gap between imperial promises and actual boots on the ground.
Indonesia delivered the biggest blow to the planned force about a week after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, when it put its commitment of 8,000 troops on indefinite hold. Some 1,000 were to have been sent in April, followed by the remainder in June. Indonesia’s pledge was by far the largest of the group, which also includes Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Albania.
What the Street Sees
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the Indonesia-Middle East/North Africa desk at Jakarta’s Center for Economic and Law Studies, said the Iran war is extremely unpopular in Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country, that the economy is suffering from soaring prices as a result of the conflict, and that there is widespread skepticism of the Board of Peace. “If you talk to the people on the street, I don’t think they believe that the Board of Peace will actually help the people of Gaza,” Rakhmat said. He also said there are concerns about sending troops to the Middle East when the economy is faltering.
Indonesia suspended its plans over what Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said last week seemed to be a lack of commitment from a distracted Washington, saying “we have not yet received any implementation guidelines.” He said, “New dynamics have emerged,” and added, “Because the intensity of the conflict between U.S. and Iranian forces remains very high, the BoP has tended to be left behind. Since the BoP has been left behind, the ISF has also been left behind.”
Indonesia lost four peacekeepers who were part of the United Nations mission in Lebanon during fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, and Rakhmat said that has further soured public opinion on such international commitments. The same public that is expected to absorb the costs of these deployments is also the one being asked to trust the people at the top to manage another “peace” apparatus.
The Ceasefire Under Pressure
Mladenov said the international force would not be able to begin operations until there was agreement and implementation of a second phase of the ceasefire, which would see Hamas disarm and Israel begin to withdraw. Israeli troops control some 60% of Gaza. That control sits at the center of the deadlock, with one side demanding disarmament and the other holding territory.
Mladenov has blamed the deadlock on Hamas, saying its disarmament is “non-negotiable” and is holding up progress on other fronts, including Israel’s withdrawal and reconstruction. “You cannot build a future with armed groups running the streets, hiding in tunnels and stockpiling weapons,” Mladenov said in Jerusalem this month. “You cannot deliver reconstruction with militias on every corner.”
Hamas says Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, holding up its further implementation, and has accused Mladenov of siding with Israel. Israeli strikes have killed more than 880 Palestinians since the ceasefire, according to local health officials. Israel says it was responding to violations of the truce.
Hamas is also demanding Israel withdraw from areas seized since the start of the ceasefire, according to an Egyptian official with knowledge of the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks. Egypt has long served as a mediator with Hamas. Many of the countries that have pledged forces have refused to send troops without a deal on Hamas disarming, the official said.
The Helpers Who Deliver Nothing Yet
Kazakhstan has said its support for the stabilization force would be limited to “the humanitarian component,” including sending medical units with a field hospital. Its Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Albania’s Defense Ministry also declined to comment on its troop commitment, saying it was a “dynamic and ongoing process.” Earlier this month, its chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Arben Kingji, told reporters that while the military had “participated in reconnaissance activities,” no troops had yet been sent. He said only a few would be dispatched as part of the stabilization force headquarters, without giving numbers, adding that further contributions would be considered.
Kosovo, which is expected to send 20 troops, said in April that it was in the “final phase of preparations.” The Defense Ministry did not reply to a request for an update. Morocco’s Foreign Ministry also did not reply. At the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said it would deploy “high-level military officers to the joint military command of the ISF.”
The U.S. military’s Central Command declined to comment or make Jeffers available for an interview, referring all queries to the Board of Peace. Board of Peace spokesman Brad Klapper also declined to comment on Indonesia’s decision or the future of the stabilization force, pointing instead to May 21 remarks made at the U.N. by Nickolay Mladenov, a former Bulgarian defense minister who Trump appointed director of the Board of Peace.
Rakhmat said it was too early to rule out eventual participation in the stabilization force. President Prabowo Subianto is a former army general who has been keen to raise Indonesia’s profile on the world stage and wants to avoid jeopardizing economic ties with the U.S., Rakhmat said. “Prabowo wants to strengthen ties to Washington and sign different agreements with the U.S., so to completely withdraw and completely cancel the plan, I don’t think it’s on the table,” he said.