Despite a wave of youth turnout for films this year, the box office is unlikely to return to its past heights, revealing a fundamental shift in how capital extracts value from cinema. Matthew Liebmann, Vista Group’s chief product, innovation, and marketing officer, stated that encouraging audiences to associate moviegoing with “all the trimmings and treats” creates an “affordability misperception,” potentially dampening regular visits. This strategy aims to maximize revenue from fewer, more affluent patrons.
Who Profits from the New Cinema Model?
Theater chains are investing heavily in amenities to drive up per-visit spending. Bob Bagby, CEO of B&B Theatres, reported his locations now offer mah-jongg, trivia, and bingo. Some even feature bocce and pickleball courts. Penn Ketchum, managing partner of Penn Cinema, described a $2 million renovation that included a 24-tap self-serve beer wall, catering to a Gen Z crowd that “wants to come in and be somewhere cool.” He noted they seek a backdrop “worthy of being in their picture.” Alicia Reese, a senior vice president of equity research for media and entertainment at Wedbush Securities, confirmed this trend, observing that “people have been trained to spend more at the theater when they go.” This retooling of the cinematic experience extends beyond simply watching a film, transforming it into a luxury consumption event.
The Shrinking Audience Base
While a January Fandango survey, drawing disproportionately from movie enthusiasts, claimed 87% of Gen Z respondents had seen at least one film in theaters this year, other data paints a different picture of overall attendance. Pew found 1 year ago that 67% of people ages 18 to 29 had seen a movie in the theater in the past 12 months. Gallup data shows a stark decline in regular moviegoing among youth: 19 years ago, 18-to-29-year-olds averaged nine films annually, a figure that plummeted to 4.3 movies 1 year ago. The non-moviegoing population has grown significantly, from 24% 7 years ago to 30% 2 years ago, according to Vista Group. This systemic decline is further evidenced by the fact that 1 year ago, theaters in the U.S. and Canada sold approximately two tickets per capita, less than half of what they sold in 2002.
Managing Contradictions
The industry’s adaptation includes the coronation of YouTube auteurs as bankable directors, with films like Backrooms and Obsession finding success this year. Yet, this shift does not reverse the broader trend of declining mass participation. Kevin Goetz, CEO and founder of Screen Engine, cautioned against proclaiming victory, stating, “I wouldn’t proclaim victory quite yet.” Matthew Liebmann noted that Gen Zers’ habits have begun to converge with those of the general moviegoing population. Moviegoing, once a matter of habit and spontaneity, now requires advance planning and a deliberate decision to attend. This transformation reflects capital’s ongoing struggle to maintain profit margins in a changing market, not by making cinema more accessible, but by making it a more expensive, curated experience for a smaller, more willing-to-spend audience. The structural contradictions of declining mass engagement are being managed through increased surplus extraction from those who still participate.