Chancellor Friedrich Merz confronts a crisis of legitimacy after the Christian Democrats failed to enter a state parliament for the first time in party history — falling below the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania while suffering heavy losses in Berlin that will likely push the CDU into opposition in the capital.
The results on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, mark a collapse of the centre-right in eastern Germany. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Alternative for Germany more than doubled its vote share to 38%. In Berlin, the AfD rose from 9% to 16%. The socialist Left won Berlin outright with 26%, doubling its previous result. Merz acknowledged the scale of the defeat. "This election is a profound turning point. It is a dramatic and unprecedented result for the CDU in Germany that we could not clear the 5% threshold," he said. He added that more than 40% of the vote went to forces that are "destructive," that question the political and parliamentary system and that try to excite people with "radical and simple solutions." He did not name the parties, but clearly meant the AfD and the Left Party.
The AfD Surge
The AfD is classified as "confirmed right-wing extremist" by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in five of Germany's 16 federal states, but not in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it significantly increased its vote share. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said the CDU had been pulverized and that Merz's resignation is "overdue." She said, "This clearly shows that we have replaced the CDU as the party of the masses." She added, "That is also the result of a very unintelligent firewall policy," referring to the CDU's so-called resolution of incompatibility, which rejects coalitions with both the AfD and the socialist Left. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla said, alluding to his party's color, "The blue wave cannot be stopped."
Political scientist Wolfgang Muno from the University of Rostock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said the AfD is "a right-wing extremist party which has managed to bring together various groups." He said of the Left Party, "We have seen that the Left has really moved toward being a pragmatic, democratically oriented party. Therefore, there is no reason for the Christian Democrats to simply accuse them of being extremists, because the Left is not an extremist party." Muno said, "But not being open to cooperating with a democratic Left Party is, in my opinion, a bad sign," referring to the CDU.
Berlin's New Mayor?
In Berlin, the socialist Left with lead candidate Elif Eralp doubled its previous result to 26% and won an election in the city-state for the first time. Eralp, whose parents fled to Germany after a military coup in Turkey, could become the first mayor from the Left in Berlin. About 200,000 of the German capital's four million residents have Turkish roots. Eralp said, "I view this election result also as a victory for solidarity, for diversity, for democracy, against the shift to the right which we are experiencing in many places in this country."
A campaign event appearance by rapper Dahabflex, who sang about wishing death for Israel's soldiers, did not appear to damage the party. Its district association in Neukölln, which had invited the singer, said it intended to clarify the matter. Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, said, "So far there have been no personnel or political consequences." He appealed to the Social Democrats and Greens not to form a coalition with the Berlin election winners. Ines Schwerdtner, federal co-leader of the Left, said she would not tolerate antisemitism among the party's ranks. "We are there in Berlin to build bridges — Elif Eralp is doing that. And within the party we will absolutely ensure that something like this does not happen," she said.
Coalition Tensions
Manuela Schwesig, the Social Democrats' lead candidate in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, scored a partial success. With about 36% of the vote, her party came in just behind the AfD, but she has good prospects of remaining state premier. She said, "I will propose to my party that we hold talks with both the Greens and the Left — the two democratic parties represented in the state parliament — and fulfil our electoral mandate." Schwesig, who has held the office since 2017, criticized Merz's announcement that he wants to press on with deep cuts to the welfare system, especially the planned pension reform. She said, "He is misjudging the situation of what the people on the ground think, at least in my state." She also reminded Merz of the coalition agreement, saying, "I would like for the coalition to implement exactly what we negotiated together in the coalition agreement, namely that the pension without deductions remains possible after 45 years of contribution."
That agreement is currently hanging in the balance. Some eastern German CDU state premiers have spoken out against the chancellor's plans. The SPD faces a dilemma because it is part of the federal government with the CDU. The party's co-leader, Bärbel Bas, said she wanted to draw the "correct conclusions" from the state election results, but also said the party had taken responsibility in the federal government. "We are in this coalition, and we also want to maintain it. Nevertheless, we must also accept the analysis from the campaign trail that the people are not satisfied with the upcoming reforms. That means that we, together with our coalition partner, must seek solutions," she said.
Why This Matters:
The CDU's collapse in eastern Germany exposes the failure of the centre-right to address the concerns that are driving voters toward the AfD — chiefly migration, economic security, and the perception that Berlin is out of touch with regional realities. Merz's firewall strategy, which refuses coalitions with both the AfD and the Left, has left the CDU without viable partners in states where those parties dominate. The result is political paralysis and a legitimacy crisis for the federal government. Meanwhile, the Left's victory in Berlin — despite associations with antisemitic incidents — reveals the weakness of mainstream parties in confronting extremism when it appears on the left. The federal coalition's proposed pension reforms, which eastern SPD leaders now openly oppose, threaten to collapse the government's legislative agenda. Germany's party system is fragmenting, and the CDU has no clear path to recovery in the east.