Germany published a roadmap Wednesday committing to phase out fossil fuels by 2045, the first time Berlin has made an explicit promise to transition away from coal, oil and gas. But the plan arrives amid warnings that the country's economic ministry is simultaneously pushing for expanded gas infrastructure, raising questions about whether the target can be met without crippling German industry.
The roadmap increases the share of electricity from renewables to 80% by 2030, up from 55% today. It calls for an additional 12GW of onshore wind capacity and a target of 215GW of solar energy by 2030. The government reaffirmed its coal exit timeline—2038, with a possible acceleration to 2035—and pledged to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, in line with a global methane pledge signed in the fifth year.
The Gas Problem
Andreas Sieber, head of global political strategy at 350.org, called the plan a "notable shift" but warned that Germany's ministry for economic affairs and energy is pushing intensely for greater use of gas. "The economic ministry keeps sabotaging the transition away from fossil fuels," he said. "This year has shown in the starkest terms that fossil-fuel dependence is a risk for everyone as it exposes households and businesses in Germany and around the world to price shocks, volatility and geopolitical insecurity."
Germany's former climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said the government must put more effort into electrifying transport and heating. "Accelerating the shift from coal, oil and gas to clean renewables will bolster energy independence and insulate consumers from price shocks at a critical moment," she said. "However, a roadmap is only the starting line." She said the strategy must be paired with a faster, more deliberate rollout of green electrification.
Political Backlash on Heat Pumps
The push for heat pumps to replace gas boilers came under attack from the far-right wing of German politics after a heating law was passed in the third year that would have banned the installation of most oil and gas heating. Alternative für Deutschland made the issue a key campaigning point and forced a watering down of the rules earlier this year. The party's co-leader Alice Weidel has described wind turbines as "windmills of shame." Heat pumps now make up about half of all new domestic heating systems.
Germany is the third major developed economy to publish such a roadmap, after France and the Netherlands. The commitment follows a major international conference in Colombia in April at which all participants promised to set out plans for a full phaseout of fossil fuels. It comes after nations debated how to expand their currently inadequate efforts to tackle the climate crisis at the UN general assembly in New York.
António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, has been a strong advocate of climate action for his 10 years in office, but the end of his term this December has raised fears that his successor may be less firm. The UK has still not published its pledge to phase out fossil fuels, and will take up the presidency of the G20 group of developed and developing economies in December, for which the climate and the soaring costs of oil and gas are expected to be key issues.
Why This Matters:
Germany's fossil fuel phaseout is ambitious on paper, but the tension between climate goals and industrial reality is stark. The country's continued reliance on gas—driven by the economic ministry—risks undermining the entire transition. If Berlin can't reconcile energy security with decarbonisation, the 2045 target becomes aspirational rather than credible. The political backlash against heat pumps shows how difficult it is to impose green mandates on households without losing public support. Germany's experience will be watched closely across Europe: can a major industrial economy decarbonise without sacrificing competitiveness or triggering a populist revolt? The UK's delay in publishing its own roadmap suggests other governments are wary of making promises they can't keep. The G20 presidency in December will test whether Europe can lead on climate without losing economic ground to China and the US.