Goldman Sachs said Wednesday that artificial intelligence is already weighing on labor markets across major developed economies, with the sharpest pressure falling on entry-level workers and on industries where automation can replace human labor. The Wall Street investment bank found that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have generally seen slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with the relationship especially pronounced in Germany, Australia and the U.S.
Who Pays for the Machine
Call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising have all fallen sharply below their historical employment trend across developed markets, Goldman said. Call centers stand out most brutally. Employment in the industry is now below trend in the U.S. by 39%, down 33% in Canada and 27% below trend in Germany, according to the report. That’s the human cost of corporate adoption dressed up as efficiency.
Goldman said the pattern shows AI-related employment pressures are already visible in industries where tools capable of automating work are available. Employment in information and communication services, one of the most AI-exposed industries, has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022. Outside the U.S., employment in those industries remains near or above its long-run trend.
The Bottom Rung Gets Hit First
The bank’s analysis of more than 800 occupations found the strongest AI-related headwinds among entry-level workers. It also found a smaller negative effect in occupations considered to have a high risk of displacement from AI. Across the broader labor market, a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in France, Canada and the U.S. But for entry-level workers, the impact ranged from more than 0.6 percentage point in Australia to over 0.2 percentage point in the U.S.
That’s the hierarchy in plain view. The people with the least leverage get squeezed first, while the firms and institutions that deploy the tools keep calling it progress. Goldman concluded that AI-related hiring pressures are clearly visible in employment data globally, but remain limited to a relatively narrow set of industries and workers.
Adoption Without Consent
Goldman combined 11 surveys measuring AI adoption across countries and found that major developed markets have adoption rates of roughly 15% to 20%. France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. are leading AI adoption, while Italy, Japan and New Zealand were among the developed economies at the lower end of adoption. Major emerging markets had estimated adoption rates of between 10% and 15%.
The report, published Wednesday, ties those adoption rates to slower job openings growth that began in the second half of 2022. Goldman said the relationship is particularly pronounced in Germany, Australia and the U.S. The bank’s own numbers show how quickly corporate decisions made at the top can ripple downward into fewer openings, weaker growth and a labor market that starts closing doors before workers even get a chance to knock.
Employment in information and communication services has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022, Goldman said, even as employment in those industries remains near or above its long-run trend outside the U.S. That split matters. The same technology doesn’t hit every place the same way, but the pressure still lands on workers, especially those trying to get in at the bottom.
Goldman’s findings don’t describe a future threat. They describe a present one, already showing up in the data, already narrowing the path into work for people at the start of their careers. The machine gets adopted. The workers absorb the shock.