Most Gulf markets advanced on May 25, 2026, on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, while a separate Haaretz analysis said Gulf states were prepared to give Iran a safety net that may save Trump from himself. The money markets moved first, as usual, while ordinary people in the region were left to live under the decisions of presidents, monarchies, and the diplomatic games they play over war and peace.
Who Holds the Levers
In Tehran, the prevailing view is that the U.S. president is willing to pay a high price for the appearance of victory. But Trump may enter the next phase of nuclear negotiations without guarantees, leverage or credible deterrence. That is the language of power talking to itself: guarantees for the rulers, leverage for the negotiators, deterrence for the military apparatus, and uncertainty for everyone else who has to endure the consequences.
No one appears to be placing bets anymore on the scenario that, until just a few days ago, looked highly likely: a return to war between the United States and Iran. The shift in expectations came not from any public say in the matter, but from the calculations of states and markets watching one another for weakness, advantage, and room to maneuver.
Pilgrims, Borders, and the Cost Below
A glance at the calendar suggested that President Donald Trump had little interest in launching a new offensive before the end of the Hajj pilgrimage and Eid al-Adha, which begins Wednesday and is expected to draw more than 1.5 million pilgrims to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh had already pressed Washington not to resume fighting while pilgrims remained inside the kingdom, fearing that a regional war could leave many stranded.
That detail cuts through the diplomatic fog: the timing of war is being weighed against the movement of more than 1.5 million pilgrims, and the risk of leaving them stranded inside Saudi Arabia. The people at the bottom are the ones who would absorb the chaos if the machinery of state violence starts up again.
The Haaretz article was written by Zvi Bar'el at 11:32 AM on May 25 2026 IDT. It said the article was in the Analysis section and carried the headline Gulf States Prepared to Give Iran a Safety Net That May Save Trump From Himself. The article also included the tags Saudi Arabia, Iran - U.S., Iran nuclear, United Arab Emirates, Donald Trump and Strait of Hormuz.
Markets Cheer, People Wait
Most Gulf markets advanced on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, according to the Reuters topic. The same coverage placed those market reactions inside the broader machinery of Middle East diplomacy and energy headlines, where financial actors respond to the possibility of peace as another asset class, even as the underlying hierarchy remains intact.
The Reuters article could not be retrieved, but the topic states that most Gulf markets advanced on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and that the coverage discussed market reactions within the Gulf in the context of Middle East diplomacy and energy headlines. In other words, the markets got their signal, the rulers got their leverage, and everyone else got to wait for the next phase of negotiations to be decided above their heads.
The Haaretz analysis said Gulf states were prepared to give Iran a safety net that may save Trump from himself. That formulation captures the whole arrangement in miniature: states buffering other states, leaders trying to manage other leaders, and the public reduced to collateral in a contest over who gets to claim victory without triggering the next round of destruction.