Gulf markets advanced today, signaling investor confidence in a potential US-Iran peace deal, a development framed by a Haaretz analysis as a strategic 'safety net' offered by Gulf states to influence US President Donald Trump. This market surge reflects the ongoing maneuvers by regional and global capital to secure stability for continued accumulation, even as the underlying contradictions of imperial policy remain unaddressed.
The Haaretz analysis, published today, May 25, 2026, stated that Gulf states are prepared to provide Iran with a financial safety net. This move is reportedly intended to 'save Trump from himself,' according to the analysis by Zvi Bar'el.
Capital's Calculation
The prevailing view in Tehran, as reported, is that the U.S. president is willing to pay a high price for the 'appearance of victory' in any nuclear negotiations. This pursuit of political capital drives the US posture, rather than a genuine commitment to lasting peace.
Despite this, Trump may enter the next phase of nuclear negotiations without guarantees, leverage, or credible deterrence. The market's advance indicates that investors are betting on a managed de-escalation, which benefits capital by reducing perceived risk in the region.
The scenario of a return to war between the United States and Iran, which appeared highly likely just days ago, is now seen as improbable. This shift allows for the continued flow of capital and the protection of existing investments in the Gulf region.
The State's Hand
A glance at the calendar suggests that President Donald Trump has little interest in launching a new offensive before the end of the Hajj pilgrimage and Eid al-Adha. Eid al-Adha begins in 2 days, on Wednesday, May 27, 2026, and is expected to draw more than 1.5 million pilgrims to Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh, representing the interests of the Saudi state and its ruling class, had already pressed Washington not to resume fighting while pilgrims remained inside the kingdom. This intervention highlights the state's role in protecting its economic and social stability, fearing that a regional war could leave many pilgrims stranded and disrupt the lucrative pilgrimage industry.
The Haaretz article, titled 'Gulf States Prepared to Give Iran a Safety Net That May Save Trump From Himself,' explicitly links these diplomatic efforts to the strategic interests of the Gulf states. The tags associated with the article, including Saudi Arabia, Iran - U.S., Iran nuclear, United Arab Emirates, Donald Trump, and Strait of Hormuz, underscore the geopolitical and economic stakes involved, particularly concerning energy routes vital for global capital.
Managing Contradictions
The reported 'peace hopes' are not a fundamental shift in imperial policy but rather a tactical adjustment to manage existing contradictions. The 'safety net' for Iran, if implemented, serves to stabilize the region in a way that benefits Gulf capital and allows the US president to claim a political win, without addressing the root causes of conflict or the systematic underpinnings of regional instability. This approach ensures that the existing distribution of power and wealth remains largely unchallenged, while offering symbolic concessions to prevent deeper structural challenges.