Israeli security and military officials say Hamas has stopped pretending it will disarm. It’s preparing to fight again. That’s the assessment in Jerusalem as US officials and representatives of the Board of Peace prepare to survey and map locations in the Gaza Strip where Hamas members would hand over their weapons under President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, Walla learned on Tuesday.
The survey aims to identify suitable sites for the weapons surrender. Israeli defense officials, though, say they’re confused by Washington’s approach to Gaza’s post-war reconstruction, especially its push to accelerate processes that appear to run against developments on the ground.
The Security Picture
Security officials familiar with the regional process describe a huge gap between Hamas’s conduct and US hopes of exchanging reconstruction for surrendered weapons. “If two months ago Hamas was still trying to create a false impression that it was willing to disarm, now it isn’t even doing that, and it is investing its efforts in preparing for a return to fighting,” one security official stressed.
Military officials told Walla that Gaza is now closer to escalation than reconstruction or a negotiated arrangement. They pointed to several developments. Hamas’s military wing is trying to rebuild its capabilities and strengthen its forces. Training exercises continue. Hamas is trying to provoke confrontations with IDF troops along the Yellow Line. Intelligence warnings also point to planned terrorist attacks, including concerns about attempts to strike in the period leading up to Israel’s elections, with the aim of influencing the results.
The IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) carry out an average of two to three targeted operations each day against Hamas operatives and commanders in the Gaza Strip. Some targets took part in the October 7 attacks. Others are organizing terrorist attacks or trying to cross the Yellow Line.
A Handover Without a Real Handover
Hamas’s original demands don’t amount to disarmament in any ordinary sense. Under those terms, the organization would be willing to hand its weapons to a third party, which would safeguard them inside the Gaza Strip, subject to commitments on reconstruction and an Israeli withdrawal. The weapons would remain in Gaza. The conditions would come first.
That arrangement sits uneasily with the American plan’s premise, which links rebuilding to the surrender of arms. Israeli officials see the sequence differently from Washington. According to assessments in Jerusalem, security officials say Israel will oppose any reconstruction measures unless Hamas is disarmed in practice and Gaza is demilitarized, including the removal of terrorist infrastructure, weapons and terrorists.
What Comes Next
The field survey will proceed against this backdrop. US officials and Board of Peace representatives are mapping handover sites while Israeli officials say Hamas is rebuilding its forces. Whether the two tracks can be reconciled depends on a question Hamas has so far not answered as Washington hopes: will it give up its weapons at all?
Israel’s elections add another variable. Intelligence warnings that Hamas may try to carry out attacks beforehand to sway the outcome mean the security establishment is planning for violence, not a handover ceremony.
Why This Matters: Israel’s position is that reconstruction can’t come before demilitarization, and its officials say Hamas is moving in the opposite direction, rebuilding capabilities and testing IDF lines. If the US pushes ahead with rebuilding before weapons are actually gone, Israeli officials fear money and materials will flow into a territory still controlled by an armed group that hasn’t renounced fighting. Israelis would face a renewed threat on their border, while Gazans could see reconstruction undone by the next round of war. For Washington, the gap between its timetable and Hamas’s preparations is now a strategic problem in its own right.