The European Union has absorbed an estimated €53 billion in higher road fuel costs since the start of the Iran war, according to a report published by Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment, or T&E. The bill is not abstract. It lands on drivers, freight operators and anyone who depends on diesel to keep moving in a system built around fossil fuel dependence and corporate supply chains.
T&E said the extra cost works out at an average of €270 million a day for transport, including €203 million a day for diesel and €67 million a day for petrol. Most of the damage came from diesel. The group estimated that €40 billion of the total extra cost was tied to diesel alone. The figures compare costs during the war with the same period last year, adjusted for inflation, and cover the 28 weeks to 6 September.
Diesel First, People Last
The report lays out how deeply the EU’s transport system is tied to diesel. T&E said diesel and gasoil account for about 43% of the oil products used in the EU by volume, around 16 percentage points above the global average and roughly twice the US share. Nearly four in 10 passenger cars on EU roads ran on diesel in 2024, and road transport used 77% of the EU’s diesel and gasoil that year. That’s the architecture of dependence, not an accident.
For ordinary drivers, the costs are already visible at the pump. T&E said the average EU diesel car driver paid about €142 more over the period it studied than in the comparable period last year. By 14 September, filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost about €30 more than before the war, it said. An average German long-haul diesel truck incurred about €6,000 in extra fuel costs over the period, equivalent to €236 a week, according to T&E. The freight economy keeps rolling, and the bill gets passed down the chain.
Brussels Numbers, Real-World Squeeze
The weighted average EU diesel price reached €2.159 a litre on 14 September, the highest in the European Commission’s series dating back to 2005. That’s the official record of a market that keeps squeezing people while institutions count the damage in neat columns. ECB experts told Euronews Business last week that, based on fuel futures at the time, diesel refining margins were expected to peak in October. That was a forecast for margins, not a prediction of when pump prices would peak.
T&E said crude oil prices have risen sharply since the war began, but diesel prices have risen faster. It said the conflict has disrupted fuel production and exports from the Middle East, while attacks on Russian refineries have further reduced global supply. T&E said diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia together fell by almost 75% in August compared with a year earlier. The gap between the price of crude oil and wholesale diesel exceeded $100 a barrel in early September, against a typical range of $10 to $30.
The Market Tightens, the State Watches
T&E said supply could tighten further in autumn as demand for heating oil, farm machinery and freight rises while refineries carry out seasonal maintenance. The US is also considering a full or partial ban on diesel exports. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he supported the idea, but no ban has been announced. The fuel system remains exposed to decisions taken far above the people who pay for them.
T&E also pointed to measures it said could cut demand. Using the International Energy Agency’s previously recommended measures to cut consumption, four measures together could cut diesel demand from cars by 15% in the short term. It said these include increased working from home where possible, with three additional remote working days per week potentially reducing a driver’s fuel bills by up to 20%. Further measures include lowering current motorway speed limits, investing in better public transport and providing advice on fuel-saving driving, including maintaining tyre pressure.
In the longer term, T&E argued that electric vehicles would reduce Europe’s exposure to oil price shocks. It estimated that nearly eight million electric cars in the EU avoided the use of about 46 million barrels of oil in 2025, saving €2.9 billion in oil imports. Even there, the logic is the same: the system measures relief in imports saved, not in freedom from the fuel regime itself.