The Iran war has cost European consumers and businesses an estimated €53 billion in higher road fuel prices since fighting began, with diesel accounting for €40 billion of that total, according to a report published by Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment on September 23. The group calculated that higher fuel prices have added an average of €270 million a day to transport costs across the EU — €203 million daily for diesel alone.
The estimates compare costs during the war's first 28 weeks, through September 6, with the same period last year adjusted for inflation. They reveal the scale of Europe's dependence on a single fuel type whose global supply chains have been severed by conflict in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries.
Europe's Diesel Dependency
Diesel and gasoil account for about 43% of oil products used in the EU by volume — 16 percentage points above the global average and roughly twice the US share. Nearly four in 10 passenger cars on EU roads ran on diesel in 2024, and road transport consumed 77% of the EU's diesel and gasoil that year, according to T&E.
The average EU diesel car driver paid about €142 more over the 28-week period than in the comparable stretch last year. By September 14, filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost about €30 more than before the war. An average German long-haul diesel truck incurred about €6,000 in extra fuel costs over the period — equivalent to €236 a week.
Supply Disruption and Price Spike
Crude oil prices have risen sharply since the war began, but diesel prices have climbed faster still. The conflict has disrupted fuel production and exports from the Middle East, while attacks on Russian refineries have further reduced global supply. Diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia together fell by almost 75% in August compared with a year earlier, T&E said.
The gap between the price of crude oil and wholesale diesel exceeded $100 a barrel in early September, against a typical range of $10 to $30. The weighted average EU diesel price reached €2.159 a litre on September 14 — the highest in the European Commission's series dating back to 2005.
ECB experts told Euronews Business last week that, based on fuel futures at the time, diesel refining margins were expected to peak in October. That was a forecast for margins, not a prediction of when pump prices would peak.
Further Tightening Expected
T&E warned that supply could tighten further in autumn as demand for heating oil, farm machinery and freight rises while refineries carry out seasonal maintenance. The US is also considering a full or partial ban on diesel exports. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he supported the idea, but no ban has been announced.
T&E said using the International Energy Agency's previously recommended measures to cut consumption, four measures together could reduce diesel demand from cars by 15% in the short term. These include increased working from home where possible, with three additional remote working days per week potentially cutting a driver's fuel bills by up to 20%. Further measures include lowering current motorway speed limits, investing in better public transport and providing advice on fuel-saving driving, including maintaining tyre pressure.
In the longer term, T&E argued that electric vehicles would reduce Europe's exposure to oil price shocks. It estimated that nearly eight million electric cars in the EU avoided the use of about 46 million barrels of oil in 2025, saving €2.9 billion in oil imports.
Why This Matters:
Europe's diesel dependency has turned a Middle East conflict into a daily tax on households and businesses across the continent. The €53 billion cost isn't an abstract figure — it's money pulled from family budgets, haulage margins, and industrial competitiveness. Germany's trucking sector alone faces weekly fuel surcharges that eat into already-thin profit margins. The price spike exposes a strategic vulnerability: Europe built its transport infrastructure around a single fuel whose supply chains run through unstable regions. The refining margin spike to over $100 a barrel — far above the normal $10-$30 range — shows a market under severe stress. Autumn demand for heating oil and potential US export restrictions could push prices higher still. Europe's energy security depends on diversifying away from oil, but that transition will take years. In the meantime, every week of conflict adds millions to the cost of moving goods and people across the single market.