Road fuel prices have burdened the European Union with an estimated €53 billion since the start of the Iran war, according to a report from Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E). This massive cost, primarily from diesel, highlights how geopolitical conflicts directly impact the pockets of working people across the continent. The group estimates that higher road fuel prices have added an average of €270 million each day to transport costs, with diesel accounting for €203 million daily and petrol for €67 million daily.
These estimates compare costs during the war with the same period last year, adjusted for inflation, covering the 28 weeks to 6 September. Diesel and gasoil make up about 43% of the oil products used in the EU by volume, a share roughly twice that of the US and 16 percentage points above the global average. In 2024, nearly four in 10 passenger cars on EU roads ran on diesel, with road transport consuming 77% of the EU’s diesel and gasoil.
An average EU diesel car driver paid approximately €142 more over the period T&E studied compared to the previous year. By 14 September, filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost about €30 more than before the war. A German long-haul diesel truck incurred about €6,000 in extra fuel costs over the period, equivalent to €236 a week, demonstrating the severe economic pressure on the logistics sector and its workers.
The Geopolitical Price of Fuel
Crude oil prices have risen sharply since the war began, but diesel prices have escalated even faster. The conflict has disrupted fuel production and exports from the Middle East, while attacks on Russian refineries have further reduced global supply. Diesel and gasoil exports from the Middle East and Russia together fell by almost 75% in August compared with a year earlier. The gap between the price of crude oil and wholesale diesel exceeded $100 a barrel in early September, far beyond the typical range of $10 to $30.
The weighted average EU diesel price reached €2.159 a litre on 14 September, marking the highest point in the European Commission’s series dating back to 2005. ECB experts told Euronews Business last week that, based on fuel futures at the time, diesel refining margins were expected to peak in October. This focus on profit margins underscores the systemic priorities of capital over the daily struggles of ordinary people.
Supply could tighten further in autumn as demand for heating oil, farm machinery, and freight rises while refineries carry out seasonal maintenance. The US is also considering a full or partial ban on diesel exports, with President Donald Trump supporting the idea on Tuesday, though no ban has been announced. Such nationalistic economic manoeuvres further destabilize global markets, impacting the most vulnerable.
False Solutions and Climate Injustice
To cut consumption, T&E cited International Energy Agency recommendations, suggesting four measures could reduce diesel demand from cars by 15% in the short term. These include increased working from home where possible, with three additional remote working days per week potentially cutting a driver’s fuel bills by up to 20%. Further measures include lowering current motorway speed limits, investing in better public transport, and providing advice on fuel-saving driving, such as maintaining tyre pressure.
In the longer term, T&E argued that electric vehicles would reduce Europe’s exposure to oil price shocks. The group estimated that nearly eight million electric cars in the EU avoided the use of about 46 million barrels of oil in 2025, saving €2.9 billion in oil imports. While presented as a solution, this approach often prioritizes the EU's economic self-interest, rather than addressing the climate crisis's disproportionate impact on the Global South, which drives migration that Fortress Europe then criminalises. The focus remains on internal European savings, not global climate justice or the human cost of resource wars.