Riyadh Strikes Expose Saudi Arabia’s War-State Weakness

On Wednesday, the Houthis attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile, and officials said the airport would remain closed until October 17. A fire at an Aramco complex in Dhahran spread across several floors. Saudi Arabia built its war apparatus to contain the Houthis while protecting economic growth. Now, strikes are hitting the very facilities that strategy was meant to shield.

The Houthis said the attacks retaliated for Saudi actions in Yemen. Their military spokesperson vowed to continue strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities. The attacks come as conflict resumes between armed authorities, while civilian life and infrastructure remain caught in the machinery of retaliation.

Containment, Until It Breaks

Saudi Arabia entered the war aiming to oust the Houthis. The campaign became a quagmire, depleted Saudi resources and drew widespread backlash over its devastating bombing campaign. Riyadh eventually cut its losses and maintained an uneasy truce with the Houthis since 2022.

“This is the collapse of Saudi Arabia’s containment strategy,” said Rob Geist Pinfold, an international security expert at King’s College London. He said Saudi leaders treated the Houthis much as Israel treated Hamas in Gaza before 7 October 2023: they believed escalation had been discouraged, though they weren’t ready for a political solution.

The truce broke after Saudi Arabia bombed Sanaa airport in July to prevent a plane carrying Houthi officials from landing. Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah military advisers and weapons systems were on board, Middle East Eye reported. The Houthis then declared a blockade against Saudi shipping and launched a lightning offensive down the Red Sea coast last month. Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies have struggled to counter it.

The military balance has shifted. In the week before the report, Houthi forces struck Riyadh’s international airport three days in a row. A Saturday strike killed at least 13 people and injured 300. On Tuesday, they hit the headquarters of Saudi state oil giant Aramco in Dhahran.

Weapons, Alliances and the Price of Rule

Saudi Arabia buys American weapons, including Patriot and Thaad air-defence systems. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said the kingdom spends 6.5 percent of its gross domestic product on military equipment, one of the world’s highest ratios. Yet Gregory Gause, an expert on the Gulf at the Middle East Institute, said the Houthis could hit “these incredibly important facilities” while Saudi Arabia couldn’t defend them. “They clearly have much better missiles and targeting technology than they did before.”

A western defence official in Riyadh said Saudi Arabia was intercepting the vast majority of missiles and drones, probably in the low 90 percent range, but the Houthis had become more skilled at penetrating its air defences. The official, speaking anonymously, said, “It is a combination of innovation, rapid speed and the latest intelligence.” Saudi Arabia built these systems to secure the kingdom, but now they’re part of a contest in which each side adapts its weapons against the other.

Saudi Arabia has also activated the Mecca Pact, a joint defence agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. Islamabad has sent military aid, and Turkey is expected to do so. The US has declined to become publicly involved, though experts said it has provided defensive support and intelligence. More alliances, more weapons, more security coordination. There’s no exit from the cycle in those arrangements.

Local Forces, Fractured Authority

Saudi Arabia is reluctant to send its own ground forces into Yemen and relies on local allies. It is the biggest backer of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, whose forces are deeply fractured. The government announced a full-scale offensive to retake territory the Houthis have held since 2014. A western official tracking the offensive said one force arrived without food and water, while other units “just melted away, leaving the flanks exposed.”

The most effective fighters against the Houthis are Yemeni factions aligned with the UAE. Saudi Arabia has clashed with the Gulf neighbour over its support for their secessionist ambitions, complicating efforts to build a cohesive military. On Tuesday, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the exiled head of Yemen’s secessionist movement, called for mobilisation against the Houthis and urged the international community to recognise a southern Yemeni state.

Saudi Arabia’s economic stakes are exposed too. The kingdom expects its economy to shrink by 3.6 percent this year and has scaled back megaprojects under its Vision 2030 plan. The airport closure comes as it prepares to host a flagship investment conference at the end of the month. A Houthi strike on Riyadh airport, Gause said, is “so much more damaging to the Saudis than a Saudi strike on Sanaa airport is to the Houthis.” The report documents competing armed authorities, fractured allies and the infrastructure both sides put at risk. It offers no account of grassroots alternatives or aid organizations; the visible actors are governments, military forces and their backers.