Hungary's incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar confronts conflicting political pressures as polling reveals his voter base holds progressive views on climate and social issues while the broader electorate remains divided on critical questions of energy independence and national security, complicating his ability to govern effectively after ending Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power.
Magyar's opposition Tisza party won a supermajority in last month's election, with the new prime minister set to be sworn in on Saturday, weeks after results triggered celebrations in Budapest and Brussels. However, a poll conducted in the days after the election and published Thursday suggests the coalition that brought Magyar to power may prove difficult to hold together.
More than three-quarters of Hungarians who voted for Magyar want his government to do more to address the climate crisis, and more than 70% want him to protect LGBTQ+ rights, the poll found. Magyar, a former member of Orbán's populist rightwing Fidesz party, has a conservative background and avoided pronouncements on progressive issues during the campaign, possibly to avoid providing fodder for the estimated 80% of Hungary's media controlled by Fidesz loyalists.
Energy and Security Priorities
The polling revealed sharp divisions on issues critical to Hungary's relationship with the European Union. While 64% of those polled said they expected the new government to improve relations with Kyiv, support for the Ukrainian war effort remains low, with 24% backing financial support for Ukraine and 12% backing military support. More than half of those surveyed, 52%, opposed halting the country's Russian energy imports.
Pawel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations, which commissioned the polling, said Magyar faces a fundamental choice. "That was my biggest surprise in this polling. There is a very clear mandate for the new government to have a more progressive stance. But it depends on whether Magyar looks at his own voters or the overall electorate, as the Hungarian public is much more divided on this," Zerka said.
Brussels Relations and Frozen Funds
The findings suggest the EU's efforts to reshape its relationship with Hungary will partly hinge on whether Magyar is first allowed space to focus on domestic change, even as the bloc races to work with him on unlocking billions in frozen EU funds. Zerka warned that pushing too hard could backfire. "The dilemma is that Brussels would want to use the opportunity for a broader U-turn. But if they push for these things too hard, they might divert the attention of the new administration and also risk breaking the neck of the new prime minister by placing him in a position where he would be seen by the Hungarian electorate as somebody who was forced by Brussels to accept unpalatable compromises," he said.
He pointed to Poland as a cautionary tale, where Donald Tusk's popularity has ebbed as political polarisation prevents him from carrying out changes voters had hoped for. However, 79% of respondents said they expected the new government to improve relations with the EU, with 73% saying they were confident Hungary would gain access to frozen recovery funds.
Orbán's Continuing Influence
Fidesz continues to wait in the wings, with 52 seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament and its potential power leveraged by many party loyalists remaining in the state, media and judiciary. "Viktor Orbán still has ways to control the situation, at least partly through his people at various levels of state institutions," Zerka said. "So while there are good reasons to celebrate today, there are also equally good reasons to be cautious about the coming months."
Broader European Context
In a separate analysis, Cas Mudde wrote that Orbán's crushing defeat has led to democratic optimism and speculation about far-right decline, but cautioned against drawing wrong conclusions. He said Orbán's defeat was not a rejection of his far-right policies, certainly not his anti-immigration policies, which are largely supported by Magyar, but of the country's dire economic situation and allegations of massive corruption under the Orbán regime.
Mudde said Magyar's victory was not so much an endorsement of his policies as a consequence of his campaigning outside traditional opposition strongholds in the most strategic constituencies in an extremely disproportional electoral system. He noted that far-right parties remain in government in the Czech Republic and Italy and lead the polls in Austria and France. The mainstreaming and normalisation of far-right actors and ideas continue unabated, he said, citing Giorgia Meloni's Italy as a mandatory pilgrimage site for politicians who want to present themselves as tough on immigration.
Mudde said the European People's party is now openly collaborating with far-right parties to pass legislation in the European parliament while still openly flirting with Meloni. He noted that in the third year following the 2024 EU elections, the EPP was adopting far-right scepticism towards the climate crisis and environmental protection in an effort to keep dissatisfied farmers from jumping ship to the far right.
Why This Matters:
Magyar's governing challenge illustrates the tension between electoral coalition-building and policy coherence that confronts center-right leaders across Europe. His voter base's progressive leanings on climate and social issues clash with the broader electorate's resistance to policies that could compromise energy security or increase fiscal burdens through Ukraine support. The frozen EU funds represent significant financial stakes, but accessing them may require policy commitments that alienate voters who prioritized economic management and corruption reduction over ideological alignment with Brussels. Fidesz's continued institutional presence creates accountability mechanisms that could constrain Magyar's flexibility, potentially preventing the type of overreach that characterized Orbán's tenure. The broader European context suggests that Magyar's success or failure in balancing these pressures will influence whether center-right parties can effectively compete against far-right alternatives without abandoning core principles of fiscal responsibility, national sovereignty, and gradual rather than radical reform.