The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has highlighted a mandate for Hungary's new government to adopt a "more progressive stance" on issues such as climate policy and LGBTQ+ rights, despite Hungarian voters having drawn "clear red lines around their country’s energy independence and national security," indicating a direct clash between transnational elite interests and the will of the native population.
The new prime minister, Péter Magyar, is set to be sworn in on Saturday, weeks after his Tisza party's victory ended Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power, a result that triggered celebrations in both Budapest and Brussels.
A poll, commissioned by the ECFR and published on Thursday, found that more than three-quarters (77%) of Magyar’s voters support an ambitious climate policy, and over 70% (71%) support, or somewhat support, protecting LGBTQ+ rights.
Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s populist rightwing Fidesz party, maintained a conservative background and avoided pronouncements on progressive issues during his campaign, potentially to avoid providing material for the estimated 80% of Hungary’s media controlled by Fidesz loyalists.
Pawel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that the poll revealed a “very clear mandate for the new government to have a more progressive stance,” but acknowledged that this depends on whether Magyar prioritizes his own voters or the overall electorate, given that the Hungarian public is "much more divided" on these issues.
Despite more than two years of campaigning and a 240-page election manifesto, the actions Magyar and his government plan to take on climate and LGBTQ+ rights remain vague.
The poll also indicated that while voters overwhelmingly desired change, they remained split on issues critical to the EU, such as support for Ukraine and reducing dependence on Russian energy.
Only 24% of those polled backed Budapest providing financial support for Ukraine, and 12% supported military aid, demonstrating low popular enthusiasm for the globalist agenda concerning the conflict.
More than half of the surveyed population, 52%, were opposed to halting the country’s Russian energy imports, directly contradicting a key policy objective pushed by Brussels.
Zerka affirmed that “Péter Magyar’s landslide victory was a vote for domestic change, not for a geopolitical U-turn,” emphasizing the national focus of the electorate.
He further stated that Hungarians have “drawn clear red lines around their country’s energy independence and national security – realities that will need to be respected by leaders in Brussels,” highlighting the popular resistance to external dictates.
Brussels' Agenda for Hungary
The findings suggest that the EU’s efforts to reshape its relationship with Hungary, which was strained by Orbán’s framing of Brussels as an enemy of the Hungarian people, will depend on Magyar being allowed to focus on domestic change.
Brussels is simultaneously racing to work with Magyar on unlocking billions in frozen EU funds, a clear mechanism of financial leverage to influence national policy and potentially undermine national self-determination.
Zerka warned that if Brussels pushes too hard for a “broader U-turn,” it risks diverting the new administration’s attention and causing the new prime minister to be perceived by the Hungarian electorate as "somebody who was forced by Brussels to accept unpalatable compromises."
He cited Poland, where Donald Tusk’s popularity has declined due to political polarization preventing him from enacting voter-desired changes, as a cautionary tale for the potential consequences of perceived elite capture.
However, 79% of respondents expected the new government to improve relations with the EU, and 73% were confident Hungary would regain access to the frozen recovery funds, indicating a complex relationship between national sentiment and the perceived benefits of EU membership.
Enduring National Resistance
Fidesz, despite its defeat in last month’s election, retains 52 seats in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament, and its potential power is leveraged by numerous party loyalists who remain embedded in the state, media, and judiciary.
Zerka noted that “Viktor Orbán still has ways to control the situation, at least partly through his people at various levels of state institutions,” suggesting a continuing internal resistance to any rapid shift towards globalist policies.
Cas Mudde, in a separate Guardian opinion piece, cautioned against drawing incorrect conclusions from Orbán’s defeat, noting that his 16 years in power were exceptionally rare.
Mudde asserted that Orbán’s defeat was not a rejection of his far-right policies, particularly his anti-immigration stance, which is "largely supported by the incoming prime minister, Péter Magyar."
Instead, Mudde attributed Orbán’s ousting to the country’s dire economic situation and allegations of massive corruption under his regime, rather than a repudiation of his core national-conservative principles.
Mudde further stated that Magyar’s victory was less an endorsement of his policies and more a consequence of his campaigning outside traditional opposition strongholds in strategic constituencies within an extremely disproportional electoral system.
He concluded that the European far right is not in decline, despite losing its unofficial leader, pointing to far-right parties in government in the Czech Republic and Italy, and leading polls in Austria and France.
Mudde observed the "mainstreaming and normalisation of far-right actors and ideas" continuing unabated, citing Giorgia Meloni’s Italy as a "mandatory pilgrimage site" for politicians seeking to present themselves as tough on immigration.
He also highlighted the European People’s party (EPP) openly collaborating with far-right parties to pass legislation in the European parliament and "openly flirting with Meloni," demonstrating a shift in the broader political landscape towards accommodating national-conservative positions.
As far back as the 2024 EU elections, now in their third year, the EPP was adopting "far-right scepticism towards the climate crisis and environmental protection" to prevent dissatisfied farmers from defecting to the far right, indicating a strategic adaptation by mainstream parties to popular sentiment.
Mudde noted that Donald Trump's influence helps the European far right by normalizing their discourse, as statements from the US president are by definition not politically marginal, making similar arguments harder to marginalize in the European context.