Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength off Mexico’s Pacific coast early Saturday, Oct. 10, as authorities warned of catastrophic winds and life-threatening storm surge along part of the west-central coast. A hurricane warning covered the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, including Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Officials urged residents in vulnerable areas to move to temporary shelters.
Warnings and Uncertainty
At midnight local time Saturday, Simon’s centre sat about 140 miles (225 km) south of Manzanillo in Colima state and about 245 miles (395 km) from Cabo Corrientes, at the southern edge of Puerto Vallarta’s bay. The storm moved north at about 5 mph (7 km/h), with minimum central pressure of 945 millibars.
The compact storm’s hurricane-force winds reached about 15 miles (30 km) from its centre; tropical-storm-force winds stretched about 80 miles (130 km). The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) expected Simon to strengthen rapidly over the following day or so. Its Friday evening forecast discussion projected winds near 155 mph (250 km/h) by Saturday evening.
Forecasters expected Simon to keep moving north through the weekend, bringing its centre near or just inland of Mexico’s west-central coast later Saturday or Sunday. In its Friday evening update, the NHC said it couldn’t determine whether the storm would move inland over Colima and Jalisco or stay offshore. Its forecast favoured landfall and rapid weakening over the mountains, with Simon dissipating by early next week. If the centre stayed offshore, Simon would likely hold hurricane strength longer.
The NHC forecast 10 to 20 inches (25 to 50 cm) of rain in southwestern Mexico, with up to 30 inches (76 cm) locally. It warned that life-threatening floods and mudslides could hit Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. The exact landfall point and time, the storm’s strength near the coast, and the need for additional watches or warnings remained uncertain.
Orders, Shelters and Closures
President Claudia Sheinbaum said the armed forces had begun preventive operations and urged people in vulnerable areas to move to temporary shelters, El Informador reported. The government activated the preventive phase of the army’s disaster-relief plan, DN-III-E, and the navy’s Plan Marina. Laura Velázquez Alzúa, head of Mexico’s federal civil protection agency, said command centres would open in Jalisco and Colima, Infobae reported.
Jalisco’s civil protection unit said non-essential activity along the state’s coast would stop from 5 p.m. Saturday, including public transport and petrol stations. Sergio Ramírez López, head of the unit, urged people in risk zones to follow authorities’ instructions. Puerto Vallarta opened five temporary shelters, mostly in schools and university buildings, and said it might open more. About 500 people had left Cabo Corrientes, the coastal municipality south of the city.
Those measures shaped movement along the coast: officials urged people to leave risk zones, while the state announced transport and petrol-station closures. The report gave no full coastal evacuation count. It described no community-led response or mutual-aid effort either, leaving government agencies and official shelters at the centre of the reported response.
Travel, Flights and Forecast Bets
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), which operates Manzanillo International Airport, said airlines had cancelled all commercial flights scheduled for Saturday. The airport stayed open for general aviation and navy flights if weather permitted, but officials gave no restart date. Several Puerto Vallarta hotels had suspended weekend bookings, El Informador reported. Jalisco’s civil protection unit asked families and tourists to reconsider coastal trips and contact their airline, hotel or agency.
On Kalshi, a U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, bettors put Simon’s chance of reaching Category 5 at 61% at 2:14 a.m. ET on Oct. 10, up from 14% a day earlier. The contract pays only if Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach 157 mph or more, the Category 5 threshold. About 11,200 contracts had changed hands across the exchange’s five Simon strength bets, each paying US$1 if correct.
The US State Department rates Colima at Level 4, “Do not travel,” and Jalisco at Level 3, “Reconsider travel,” citing terrorism, crime and kidnapping. Its May 29 advisory limits travel in Colima to central Manzanillo’s tourist and port areas and sets no restrictions for Puerto Vallarta. Mexican civil protection instructions, airline and hotel updates, and NHC and Mexican weather service forecasts remain central as Simon’s path and coastal impact remain uncertain.