Hurricane Trudy Puts Mexico’s Pacific Coast on Alert

Hurricane Trudy strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane off Mexico’s Pacific coast early Friday, Oct. 16, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Its projected path puts coastal communities under a widening system of watches, warnings and forecasts, though the storm’s precise track remains uncertain.

Warnings From Above

At midnight Mexico Central time, or 2 a.m. ET, Trudy’s eye sat about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of Acapulco and 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. The storm moved northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h), and its central pressure measured 957 millibars. Hurricane-force winds reached 25 miles (35 km) from the center; tropical-storm-force winds extended 105 miles (165 km).

Trudy climbed from a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday to a major hurricane in about a day. The National Hurricane Center predicted further strengthening as the storm approached Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coast on Saturday and Saturday night. It said Trudy could reach about 145 mph (230 km/h), Category 4 strength, on Saturday.

Forecasters expected winds of about 130 mph (210 km/h) by Saturday evening Mexico time, then about 100 mph (160 km/h) by Sunday evening. Wind shear, changes inside the eyewall and contact with land could weaken Trudy. A path farther out to sea could keep it stronger; a route over land could weaken it quickly. Most forecast models kept the center just offshore, while the U.S. GFS model sent it inland. The National Hurricane Center said the storm’s uncertain track made its strength forecast highly sensitive.

A hurricane watch covered the coast from north of Punta San Telmo in Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. A tropical storm warning covered the coast from Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo in Guerrero. The National Hurricane Center said officials would likely need additional watches or warnings later Friday. El Financiero, citing Mexico’s national water commission Conagua, described the hurricane-watch area as Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco and the tropical-storm precaution zone as Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo.

The Cost at the Coast

The National Hurricane Center forecast 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain through the weekend along the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches (300 mm). Such rainfall could trigger life-threatening floods and mudslides on steep ground. Guerrero could get 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated totals near 6 inches (150 mm).

Winds blowing onshore could drive storm surge, along with large, destructive waves. Swells were expected to reach parts of the coast from Friday through the weekend, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents. Tropical-storm conditions could reach the coast early Saturday. These forecasts describe the hazards people along the coast face, not a certainty about Trudy’s destination.

Fabián Vázquez Romaña, coordinator of Mexico’s weather service (SMN), said Thursday that Trudy could reach Category 3 or 4 from Friday and approach the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, El Financiero reported. The SMN did not expect the storm to make landfall; it expected Trudy to weaken to a tropical storm near the coast. Excélsior quoted the service as saying Sunday would bring the storm’s closest approach to the coast, at Playa Pérula in Jalisco.

Travel, Warnings and Uncertainty

The Rio Times said visitors along the coast between Zihuatanejo and Puerto Vallarta should prepare for heavy rain, rough seas and possible travel disruption over the weekend. It urged them to follow airline, hotel and local civil-protection guidance and stay out of the water while rip-current warnings remained in effect. Puerto Vallarta sits just north of the watch area at Cabo Corrientes, and the National Hurricane Center said officials could issue more watches. The Rio Times called Trudy a threat to a stretch of coast popular with American visitors.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Simon, northwest of Trudy, had winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), and forecasters expected it to weaken to a remnant low soon. The Rio Times said Simon should become a remnant low within about a day and had no coastal watches. In the Pacific near Guam, Tropical Storm Champi sat east of the island Friday, moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h), with maximum sustained winds rising to 52 mph (86 km/h), according to the U.S. Weather Service and the U.S. Navy’s Meteorology and Oceanography Command website. Officials issued a typhoon warning for Guam and Rota, and a tropical storm warning for Tinian and nearby areas.