Hurricane Trudy Puts Mexico's Pacific Coast at Risk

Hurricane Trudy reached Category 3 strength early Friday, Oct. 16, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Coastal areas of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco faced forecasts for destructive winds, flooding and mudslides. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Trudy could approach southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night.

Who Faces the Immediate Risk

The National Hurricane Center forecast 4 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend along the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches. Such rainfall could trigger life-threatening floods and mudslides on steep ground. Guerrero could receive 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals near 6 inches.

Winds blowing onshore could drive storm surge, along with large, destructive waves. Swells were expected to reach parts of the coast from Friday through the weekend, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Tropical-storm conditions could reach the coast early Saturday.

A hurricane watch covered the coast north of Punta San Telmo in Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. A tropical-storm warning covered the coast from Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo in Guerrero. The National Hurricane Center said officials would likely need additional watches or warnings later Friday. El Financiero, citing Mexico's national water commission Conagua, described the hurricane-watch area as Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco and the tropical-storm precaution zone as Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo.

The Rio Times said visitors between Zihuatanejo and Puerto Vallarta should expect heavy rain, rough seas and possible travel disruption over the weekend. It advised them to follow airline, hotel and local civil-protection guidance and stay out of the water while rip-current warnings remained in effect. Puerto Vallarta lies just north of the watch area at Cabo Corrientes, and the National Hurricane Center said officials could issue more watches. The Rio Times described the threatened stretch of coast as popular with American visitors.

Forecasts and Public Warnings

At midnight Mexico Central time, or 2 a.m. ET, the hurricane's eye sat about 260 miles southwest of Acapulco and 365 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo. Trudy moved northwest at 6 mph, with central pressure of 957 millibars. Hurricane-force winds extended 25 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached 105 miles.

Trudy had strengthened from Category 1 on Thursday to a major hurricane in about a day. The National Hurricane Center forecast it could reach about 145 mph, Category 4 strength, on Saturday. The center expected winds of about 130 mph by Saturday evening Mexico time and about 100 mph by Sunday evening.

Fabián Vázquez Romaña, who coordinates Mexico's weather service (SMN), said Thursday that Trudy could reach Category 3 or 4 from Friday and approach the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, El Financiero reported. The SMN did not expect the storm to make landfall and forecast it would weaken to a tropical storm near the coast. Excélsior quoted the service as saying Sunday would bring the storm's closest point to the coast, at Playa Pérula in Jalisco.

An Uncertain Track

Wind shear, changes inside the eyewall and contact with land were expected to weaken Trudy. A track farther out to sea could keep it stronger, while a path over land could weaken it quickly. Most forecast models kept the center just offshore, though the U.S. GFS model brought it inland. The National Hurricane Center said the strength forecast remained highly sensitive to Trudy's uncertain track.

Tropical Storm Simon, northwest of Trudy, had winds of 45 mph and was forecast to weaken to a remnant low within about a day. It had no coastal watches. In the Pacific near Guam, Tropical Storm Champi moved west-northwest at 12 mph as maximum sustained winds increased to 52 mph. Officials issued a typhoon warning for Guam and Rota, and a tropical-storm warning for Tinian and nearby areas.