Trudy Threatens Mexico Coast With 145-Mph Winds

Hurricane Trudy reached Category 3 strength off Mexico’s Pacific coast early Friday, packing maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. At midnight Mexico Central time, or 2 a.m. ET, the storm sat about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of Acapulco and 365 miles (590 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. It moved northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h), with central pressure of 957 millibars.

A forecast with a narrow margin

Trudy climbed from Category 1 on Thursday to a major hurricane in about a day. The National Hurricane Center forecast it could reach about 145 mph (230 km/h), or Category 4 strength, on Saturday. Its forecast called for winds near 130 mph (210 km/h) by Saturday evening Mexico time, then about 100 mph (160 km/h) by Sunday evening.

The storm could approach Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coast Saturday and Saturday night. Its exact track remained uncertain, and the National Hurricane Center said that track could sharply affect its strength forecast. Most forecast models kept the center just offshore, but the U.S. GFS model brought it inland. Trudy could stay stronger on a track farther out to sea; a track over land could weaken it quickly.

Wind shear, changes inside the eyewall and contact with land were expected to weaken the hurricane. Hurricane-force winds reached 25 miles (35 km) from its center, while tropical-storm-force winds stretched 105 miles (165 km). Tropical-storm conditions could reach the coast early Saturday.

Warnings and coastal hazards

A hurricane watch covered the coast from north of Punta San Telmo in Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. A tropical storm warning covered the coast from Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo in Guerrero. The National Hurricane Center said officials would likely need additional watches or warnings later Friday. El Financiero, citing Mexico’s national water commission Conagua, described the hurricane-watch area as Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula in Jalisco and the tropical-storm precaution zone as Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo.

The National Hurricane Center forecast 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain through the weekend along the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches (300 mm). That rain could trigger life-threatening floods and mudslides on steep ground. Guerrero could get 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated totals near 6 inches (150 mm).

Storm surge could affect areas where winds blew onshore, along with large and destructive waves. Swells were expected to reach parts of the coast from Friday through the weekend, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Official outlook and travel guidance

Fabián Vázquez Romaña, who coordinates Mexico’s weather service (SMN), said Thursday that Trudy could reach Category 3 or 4 from Friday and approach the coasts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, El Financiero reported. The SMN didn’t expect the storm to make landfall and forecast it would weaken to a tropical storm near the coast. Excélsior quoted the service as saying Sunday would bring the storm’s closest approach to the coast, at Playa Pérula in Jalisco.

The Rio Times said visitors to the coast between Zihuatanejo and Puerto Vallarta should prepare for heavy rain, rough seas and possible travel disruption over the weekend. It advised them to follow airline, hotel and local civil-protection guidance and stay out of the water while rip-current warnings lasted. Puerto Vallarta lies just north of the watch area at Cabo Corrientes, and the National Hurricane Center said it might need more watches. The Rio Times also said Trudy threatened a stretch of coast popular with American visitors.

Tropical Storm Simon, northwest of Trudy, had winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and was forecast to weaken to a remnant low soon. The Rio Times said Simon should become a remnant low within about a day and had no coastal watches. In the Pacific near Guam, Tropical Storm Champi sat east of the island Friday, moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h), with maximum sustained winds rising to 52 mph (86 km/h), according to the U.S. Weather Service and the U.S. Navy’s Meteorology and Oceanography Command website. Officials issued a typhoon warning for Guam and Rota, and a tropical storm warning for Tinian and nearby areas.