Two-Party System Squeezes Out Independent Voters

As many as 117 million U.S. adults identify as politically independent, but the Democratic and Republican parties still dominate elections, from Congress to state legislatures. The Pew Research Center’s annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey found that 44 percent of adults identify as independent, compared with 29 percent as Democrats and 28 percent as Republicans. A large constituency, then, faces a narrow electoral gate.

“The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters,” said Rick Bennett, the former Republican Party chair in Maine, where he’s running to become only the third independent governor in the state's history. Millions reject the two major-party labels. Far fewer vote for independent candidates.

A narrow gate to the ballot box

The United States doesn't legally restrict elections to two parties, and many local officials have no party affiliation. But in higher-profile federal and statewide contests, winner-take-all elections and single-member congressional districts work against outsiders. Even substantial support for a minor party is rarely concentrated enough in one district to win a congressional seat.

That structure shapes voters’ choices. People who identify as or prefer independents often back a Democrat or Republican they consider more viable, and may avoid “spoilers” who could draw votes from a major-party candidate. Political scientist AJ Simmons said voters hesitate to cast a “wasted” ballot when Democrats or Republicans are the most competitive candidates.

Most self-described independents still lean toward one of the major parties. Those who express no partisan leaning make up about 7-10 percent of the electorate, and campaigns seek them as persuadable swing voters. In the 2026 midterms, 52 percent of likely independent voters support Democrats and 39 percent back Republicans, polling firm Marist suggests. Independent respondents are more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against President Donald Trump; 28 percent say they’re voting for “change.”

Money sets another barrier

Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University who studies third parties, said there is “very little evidence that legal barriers are undermining these candidates,” despite laws often being blamed for keeping them off ballots. “Money is the real barrier,” the article reports of his assessment.

Federal elections during the 2024 presidential cycle cost $14.8 billion, and spending in the 2026 midterms is projected to surpass that. Political advertising alone could reach as much as $11.6 billion. The Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3 million during the 2026 midterm campaign cycle; the Republican National Committee took in about $341 million.

The United States “offers virtually no public support” or funding to political parties and doesn't limit campaign spending, Tamas said. Independent candidates “raise very little money” and are less well known by voters. The arithmetic favors parties that already have the largest campaign machinery.

Lesley Shedd, a Republican strategist, argued that rising independent identification can obscure support for the major parties. “When somebody says they are independent, they really are a Republican or Democrat but they maybe don't agree with the party on absolutely every issue,” Shedd said. She added that some “just don't want to feel as though they are part of the culture of the swamp of [Washington] DC.”

Independent bids inside the system

The Independent Leadership Council, launched in July by former Democrat-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, provides donors and campaign resources to independent congressional candidates and has raised more than $10 million. Analysts say the longer-term test is whether independent candidates can remain viable across multiple races and election cycles.

There is currently one independent in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate; no independent holds a state governor seat. Bennett is one of 11 independent or third-party candidates running for governor or U.S. Senate whom Simmons expects to exceed the 5 percent threshold often used to assess electoral viability.

Simmons said independent congressional candidates could disrupt the midterm map, particularly in Nebraska and Montana. He called Nebraska independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn the “most likely alternative candidate to win” nationwide. RealClearPolling has deemed the race a toss-up. After the Nebraska Democratic Party's candidate withdrew, the party didn’t field a replacement nominee, leaving Osborn as the principal challenger to Republican Pete Ricketts.

In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president and Army veteran, is running against Republican Kurt Alme for the U.S. Senate seat. The Independent Leadership Council is backing Bodnar and California Congressman Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party to seek re-election as an independent. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alani Bankhead could draw support from the same centre-left and anti-Republican voters as Bodnar, creating a three-way contest that could benefit the Republican. In Idaho and South Dakota, independents aren't forecast to win, but they’re expected to force Republicans to divert money, campaign time and attention. Simmons said their greatest impact may be pressure on major parties to “implement a new policy or govern more effectively.”