Dirt mounds now ring Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites, built last month to blunt a possible ground raid. That’s what Vantor satellite images show, according to an analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, DC, nonprofit, reported by The Wall Street Journal and relayed by The Jerusalem Post.
The imagery offers one part of a broader picture. Iran is fortifying sensitive locations, including nuclear sites and border areas, as it works to rebuild its missile and drone programs after earlier US and Israeli strikes damaged them. In a report published Monday, The Wall Street Journal said Tehran could be preparing for renewed war and seeking to deter American attacks after the midterm elections.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, didn’t hedge. “In both word and deed, the Islamic Republic is actively preparing for the next war,” he said.
The Security Picture
The preparations go beyond concrete and dirt. The Journal described paramilitary forces reading war stories to kindergartners, advertisements for training in firing shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles, and rallies intended to prepare the population for renewed conflict. Iran is also preparing to defend against different kinds of airstrikes, the report said, and has likely drawn lessons from the 12 Day War in June 2025 and the round of strikes that began in February 2026 and continued until May.
Those strikes supposedly settled the missile question. In March, Israel’s prime minister said Iran could no longer produce ballistic missiles because of US and Israeli action. There was also an optimistic assessment of how many Iranian launchers had been destroyed and how many missiles were “corked” in depots after routes to them collapsed. Then, in April, The New York Times reported that Iran was repairing its missile bunkers. The Jerusalem Post’s reading: the regime has shown it can rebuild.
The politics are tangled. Over the weekend, Maariv reported that the United States had pressured Israel to strike Iran, according to The Jerusalem Post. Israel and the United States both have upcoming elections, and strikes could affect them.
Diplomatic Dead End
Tehran isn’t budging at the table. PBS reported Sunday that Iran continued to reject a deal with the United States. The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council called Washington’s latest response “insufficient.” Negotiations to end the war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz were making little headway.
Iran continues to threaten shipping through the strait, while the United States works to keep ships moving and limit damage to energy prices. Those efforts haven’t resolved what the Journal called an open-ended conflict. Iran has also attacked US bases in the region, damaging facilities and aircraft and prompting the United States to reposition assets.
The Regional Threat
Iranian officials have hinted that their forces could conduct land incursions into neighboring countries, according to people familiar with the warnings who spoke to the Journal. The withdrawal of US forces from Iraq on September 30 could give Tehran openings, either to infiltrate through Iraq or to use Iranian-backed militias there for further attacks. Those militias have already hit a key pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
CENTCOM and Saudi Arabia carried out retaliatory strikes in July, but Riyadh was reluctant to take on militias in Iraq and the Houthis at the same time. Tehran has separately warned Arab officials it could strike regional targets, including Saudi oil facilities, if conflict resumes. Houthi attacks have targeted Saudi airports in recent days, killing and wounding people, and Saudi Arabia is weighing how to respond.
Why This Matters: The reporting describes a regime that absorbed two rounds of strikes, 14 days after the last US forces left Iraq, and is hardening its nuclear sites, rebuilding its missile bunkers, and warning Gulf states of reprisals. Early claims that Iran’s ballistic missile production was finished haven’t held up against later evidence of repairs. From a security standpoint, the concern is the gap between what was announced and what’s being rebuilt, with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis positioned to pressure Saudi Arabia while Washington and Jerusalem weigh election-year decisions. Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, and energy markets remain exposed.