Israel and the United States launched Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury on February 28, and the wreckage has kept moving outward ever since. The Jerusalem Post said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed by an Israeli strike on a Tehran bunker, along with Iran’s defense minister and several IRGC generals, in what it described as the largest-ever aerial attack by the IAF. Iran retaliated by firing across the Middle East at Gulf nations and US military bases in the region. The same report said 39 IDF soldiers and 23 civilians have been killed, and at least 7,693 more injured in ballistic missile attacks across Israel since February 28. CENTCOM said 18 US soldiers were killed.
The State Monopoly on Violence
The numbers tell the story better than the speeches do. Military operations announced by states, retaliation ordered by states, and civilians trapped under the arithmetic of escalation. The Jerusalem Post account placed the killing of top Iranian officials inside a bunker strike, while also describing Iranian fire reaching Gulf nations and US bases. That’s the machinery at work: command centers, airstrikes, missile launches, and the people below who don’t get a vote in any of it.
The ceasefire deal was announced on April 7 before it went into effect on April 8. The dates matter because the violence did not stop the logic behind it. The same institutions that launched the attacks remained the ones defining the terms of pause, retaliation, and future threat. Nothing in the reporting suggests ordinary people were consulted before the next round was set in motion.
Tehran, Washington, and the Next War
Mohsen Rezaei, the new leader of Iran’s top security body, threatened Tehran’s neighbors against joining new U.S. efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy and accused the United States of increasing global nuclear insecurity with months of war. Speaking in an interview with the state broadcaster that aired Saturday, he said, “If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner.” He said Iran would target oil-shipping routes out of the Persian Gulf, alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, if neighbors join what he called the economic war against Iran. Those neighbors would be considered enemies and “we will target their interests,” he said.
Rezaei was named this month as part of senior appointments widely seen as hardening Tehran’s political and military stance. He also said discussions with Oman, located on the other side of the strait, over management of it were ongoing, and said fees would be imposed. Iran asserted control over what was seen as an international waterway shortly after the U.S. and Israel attacked on Feb. 28. The language is familiar: sovereignty, security, management, fees. The people who actually move goods, breathe the air, and live with the consequences get the bill.
Rezaei also vowed to make changes to Iran’s diplomacy and bring new capabilities to what he called the next war. He warned the U.S. against sending more military personnel to the region, and said the U.S. had increased nuclear insecurity because countries see that participating in international monitoring efforts, as Iran has done, is no protection against attack. That’s the state system in one sentence: comply, monitor, negotiate, and still get hit.
Borders, Bunkers, and the Diplomatic Theater
The AP report said the top diplomats for Egypt and Iran discussed efforts to bring Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table to settle the war, and that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty also discussed the Iranian-Omani talks. Araghchi briefed Egypt’s foreign minister about “Iran’s view of ongoing developments, the course of negotiations and their challenges,” the ministry said, without elaborating. Araghchi confirmed the call. Separately, Araghchi said he had a call with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir.
Negotiations, briefings, calls, and more calls. The apparatus keeps talking while the region keeps absorbing the damage. The report gives no sign that these diplomatic circuits have restrained the military ones. They run alongside each other, polished and official, while the missiles and drones do the actual governing.
Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said a number of Iraqi oil tankers have been permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraqi President Nizar Amidi said there is facilitation for some ships carrying Iraqi oil in the Strait of Hormuz and added that Iraq doesn’t have a national carrier for transporting oil. It was not clear how many ships were involved or what Iran might have received in return. Even here, the language is transactional and opaque. Access, permission, facilitation. The sea becomes another bargaining chip.
An Israeli drone strike on a vehicle wounded one person on Saturday in the southwestern Syrian village of Beit Jin, according to the Syrian state news agency SANA, and Syria’s foreign ministry said several civilians were injured and called the strike a flagrant violation of the country’s sovereignty. The Israeli military said it targeted a “terrorist who advanced terror attacks in final stages of preparation,” without elaborating. It wasn’t immediately clear if it was the same strike. Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes around Syria after the ouster of former President Bashar Assad in late 2024, mainly destroying army assets to keep them out of the hands of his successors.
U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack said Israel “still” occupies the Golan Heights in violation of U.N. resolutions. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Saturday called Barrack’s remarks “full of inaccuracies and positions that contradict Trump’s own position.” Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 war and annexed it in 1981. The U.N. considers the territory occupied Syrian land. But in March 2019, Trump signed a proclamation recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, reversing decades of U.S. policy. The resolutions sit there. The occupation sits there too.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are expected to discuss plans to develop alternatives routes to the Strait of Hormuz during the Saudi leader’s two-day visit to Paris that starts on Sunday, according to officials in the presidency who weren’t authorized to be publicly named. Proposals include increasing trade through Omani ports outside of the Persian Gulf, expanding or doubling pipelines in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, and developing new rail links, the officials said. France and Saudi Arabia have formed a task force on energy and logistics connections between the Middle East and Europe that is scheduled to meet at the ministerial level Monday. The officials said the work would focus on identifying the most strategic projects, securing financing and establishing roles for French companies. The same old order, just with better branding and a task force.